UNC football vs. Miami: Scouting report, score prediction

The North Carolina Tar Heels get their shot at the preseason pick to win the ACC Coastal Division on Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium (4 p.m., ESPN2).

UNC (4-1, 1-0) heads to the Sunshine State for a meeting with Miami (2-2, 0-0), which was tabbed the Coastal favorite over defending champion Pittsburgh in August. The voting reflected a strong finish to 2021 in which the Hurricanes won five of their last six and the excitement about new head coach Mario Cristobal.

A former Miami offensive lineman, Cristobal is regarded as one of the best young coaches in the college game. But the Hurricanes haven't exactly had the best of starts under Cristobal, and a 45-31 loss in their last outing Sept. 24 against Middle Tennessee State was considered an epic failure.

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED:UNC football leaders issued challenge of accountability to defense — and it worked

BACK IN THE MIX:UNC football WR Antoine Green back from injury and punishing defenses

ACC POWER RANKINGS:Clemson soars while Pitt and NC State tumble

North Carolina, picked to finish third in the Coastal, owns a three-game winning streak against Miami. An interception by UNC linebacker Cedric Gray in the final minute last season helped the Tar Heels win 45-42 in Chapel Hill.

Here's what to know about this year's UNC-Miami matchup and a score prediction.

Bombs away

North Carolina's wide receivers must have been licking their lips after watching film of Miami's loss against Middle Tennesse State. The Hurricanes gave up touchdown passes of 71, 69 and 98 yards, and surrendered an 89-yarder to set up another score.

The Tar Heels have even more quick-strike capabilities than MTSU with strong-armed redshirt freshman Drake Maye at quarterback and an army of deep threats at receiver. You can expect Maye, who is tied for the national lead with 19 touchdown passes, to test the Miami secondary early with some downfield throws to speedy Antoine Green, All-ACC Josh Downs or even tight end Bryson Nesbit.

Tight end talent

For the second time in three games, North Carolina's defense will face an NFL-caliber tight end in Miami's Will Mallory.

Mallory, a 6-5, 245-pound fifth-year senior, is being projected as a mid-round prospect for the 2023 NFL draft. He's one of the most experienced players on Miami's roster, having started 32 of 50 games he's appeared in with the Hurricanes. Mallory has also been a major contributor to the passing attack with 85 catches for 1,133 yards and 11 touchdowns in his career.

The Tar Heels didn't fare so well the last time they defended a tight end with credentials like Mallory's. Notre Dame's Michael Mayer pretty much had his way in making seven catches for 88 yards and a touchdown against UNC on Sept. 24.

The pressure will be on North Carolina's Gray and senior Buck safety Giovanni Biggers to keep Mallory in check.

Florida flavor

The Miami game will be sort of a homecoming for a large part of North Carolina's offensive unit. Five starters and one backup on offense all hail from the state of Florida, including grad student center Cory Gaynor.

Gaynor, who attended high school 42 miles northwest of Miami in Parkland, was the Hurricanes' starting center the last two seasons before transferring to UNC for his final year of eligibility.

Left guard Ed Montilus and right guard William Barnes are both from Apopka, while second-team left guard Cayden Baker is from Fort Myers. Senior receiver Antoine Green is from Rockledge and tight end Kamari Morales is from Buck Lake.

UNC also has Florida connections on defense in reserve corner Dontae Balfour (Starke) and reserve safety DeAndre Hollins (Tampa).

Canes QB troubles

Miami's Tyler Van Dyke was the ACC Rookie of the Year as a true freshman in 2021 after throwing 20 touchdown passes in leading the Hurricanes to wins in five of their final six games.

But what a difference a year can make. Van Dyke struggled out of the gate in 2022 and was even benched in the third quarter two weeks ago as Middle Tennessee State stunned Miami, 45-31. He completed just 16 of 32 passes and was intercepted twice before being pulled.

In the Hurricanes' two losses this season (the other was 17-9 against Texas A&M), Van Dyke has completed just 37 of 73 throws and only one touchdown. Van Dyke was replaced by Jake Garcia in the MTSU game, so it'll be interesting to see who gets the starting nod against UNC. Miami had a bye week last Saturday, so Van Dyke has had two weeks to get his act together.

Score prediction

North Carolina 44, Miami 28: The best offense wins this one, and that is the Tar Heels, whose multiple weapons at receiver will have Maye distributing the ball all around the field against the Canes. UNC moves to 2-0 in ACC play and gets a leg up in the Coastal Division race.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC football score prediction vs. Miami: Scouting report