UNC football vs. Virginia: Scouting report, score prediction
No. 15 North Carolina heads to Charlottesville, Virginia, with an outside chance at clinching the Atlantic Coast Conference's Coastal Division title.
The Tar Heels (7-1, 4-0) enter the clash with Virginia (3-5, 1-4) at Scott Stadium on Saturday (noon, ACC Network) with a two-game lead over Duke and Miami in the Coastal standings. By beating the Cavaliers, in combination with losses by those teams and Georgia Tech this week, UNC could secure its second-ever trip to the ACC championship game.It's a longshot that all that will fall into place, but the odds are still with North Carolina in the Coastal race with four regular-season games to play.
Here's what to know about this week's UNC-Virginia matchup and a score prediction.
SOUTH'S "OLDEST'' RIVALRY
Saturday will mark the 127th football game played between UNC and Virginia. It's a series that began in 1892 and the teams have met annually since 1919, earning it the moniker of the "South's Oldest Rivalry.''
ACC FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS:Our experts pick the winner of every game in Week 10
LINEUP SHAKEUP:What will UNC football's defense look like at Virginia after losing multiple players to injuries?
Technically, the Auburn-Georgia series was first played 245 days before UNC-Virginia, making it the true oldest rivalry in the South. But we'll call that the "Deep South's Oldest Rivalry.''
Auburn-Georgia and UNC-Virginia are also tied for the second-longest rivalries among Power Five Conference schools, trailing only the Minnesota-Wisconsin series, which will be played for the 132nd time this season.
CHARLOTTESVILLE BLUES
UNC coach Mack Brown is hoping history doesn't repeat itself Saturday in Charlottesville. The Tar Heels haven't won a game against Virginia at Scott Stadium with Brown as head coach.
During Brown's first tenure as UNC's head coach from 1988-97, his teams were 0-5 in games at Charlottesville. In his only game there since returning to coach the Tar Heels in 2019, the Cavaliers pulled out a 44-41 decision in 2020. Coincidently, North Carolina was also ranked 15th at the time of that defeat.
“It has absolutely nothing to do with me. It’s about playing,” Brown said this week about his winless streak in Charlottesville. “Some teams have other teams' numbers, that happens. I see it. We had trouble winning at Kansas State when I was at Texas. I don’t know why. They usually played better when we went out there.”
ARMED-STRONG AND DANGEROUS
North Carolina won't have a false sense of security, even though Virginia's offense has struggled of late. That's because the Tar Heels have experienced the damage Cavaliers quarterback Brennan Armstrong can inflict on a defense.
Over the last two seasons Armstrong has shredded UNC's secondary for 762 yards and seven touchdowns passing. A year ago, he was 39 of 54 passing for 554 yards and four touchdowns in a 59-39 shootout in Chapel Hill.That's enough to make UNC's Brown wary.
"What he’s done at Virginia’s been absolutely amazing,” Browns said of Armstrong this week.
THE REPLACEMENTS
Two more defensive starters were lost by UNC this week for the season due to injuries.
One of those was defensive end-linebacker Noah Taylor, who spent his last four years staring at Virginia. Taylor was enjoying a strong year after joining the Tar Heels as a graduate transfer. But both he and defensive end Desmond Evans suffered injuries in last week's win against Pitt that have thrust their understudies into starting roles.
Graduate student Chris Collins and junior Kaimon Rucker will now take most of the snaps in place of Taylor and Evans, although younger players such as Jahvaree Ritzie, Malaki Hamrick and Kedrick Bingley-Jones must also take on larger reserve roles.
KEY MATCHUP
The Tar Heels boast the best wide receiver combo in the ACC with senior Antoine Green and junior Josh Downs. Together, they've accumulated 68 receptions for 1,091 yards and 13 touchdowns while missing most of three games with injuries. Green is averaging 24.5 yards per catch, which would rank second nationally if he'd played in enough games.
Downs and Green will be challenged by Virginia's cornerback duo of Anthony Johnson and Futrell Cypress. Johnson, a grad student, rated second in the most recent grades handed out for cornerbacks by Pro Football Focus and has seven career interceptions and 30 pass breakups. Cypress, a junior, had the third-highest grade among cornerbacks by PFF.
SCORE PREDICTION
North Carolina 46, Virginia 21: As good as the Cavaliers looked in not allowing a touchdown in their last eight quarters, they weren't facing an offense as explosive as UNC's in those games. Tar Heel quarterback Drake Maye will have another big day to keep his name in the Heisman discussion while at the same time getting UNC a step closer to the Coastal Division crown.
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC football vs. Virginia: Scouting report, score prediction
