UNC survey has a bipartisan reopening message for NC’s governor: Go slow
As scientists study how the coronavirus affects the body, Marc Hetherington is exploring how it is affecting the body politic.
Hetherington, a political scientist at UNC-Chapel Hill, and a handful of other political scientists, have completed the first of a series of COVID-19 surveys measuring how Americans are responding to the pandemic and their willingness to take the steps needed to keep it in check. In North Carolina, the findings should reassure Gov. Roy Cooper that a great majority put protecting public health first and are convinced that the economy must be reopened gradually.
Eighty percent of supposedly polarized Americans surveyed said they agree with stay-at-home orders and requiring non-essential businesses to close. The extent of that consensus stunned Hetherington.
“Oh my gosh was I surprised,” he said. “When I think about the things 80 percent of Americans agree on, you could count them on one hand.”
But challenges lie ahead. Some Republican politicians are pushing for a fast reopening of state economies, while Democratic leaders say the reopening must be gradual and pulled back if COVID-19 cases surge.
Right now public sentiment strongly favors the go-slow approach.
“By an 80-to-20 margin people are much more concerned about the health consequence than the economic consequences,” he said.
Fear of COVID-19 crosses party lines. Despite President Trump’s confidence that the U.S. is moving beyond the pandemic, 39 percent of Republicans surveyed described themselves as “very concerned” about getting sick, and 38 percent said they were “somewhat concerned.” Democrats had a similar response.
Those numbers may explain why reopen rallies in state capitals are not attracting big crowds. “The data suggest that this group is fringe,” Hetherington said. “There does not appear to be any true grass roots effort to force reopenings.”
But some movement is necessary, he said. “We do have to move forward because fatigue is picking up. But it’s important to not think of this as: Do we open or stay closed? There is a middle ground,” he said.
The survey did find that the level of concern varies along age and geographic lines. Respondents under 25 and, surprisingly, those over 75 worry less about being infected. And people in rural areas, he said, “are significantly less scared.”
Overall, however, stress is weighing heavily on Americans as they worry about their health, their incomes and their loss of social contact.
“Usually political scientists don’t ask about mental health, but we are seeing a real mental health toll,” he said. “About 30 percent of Americans say the virus is having a ‘major impact’ and 30 percent say ‘no impact,’ but 30 percent of Americans having a real hard time with this mentally is really noteworthy.”
The survey questioned 2,400 people representative of the United States in terms of education, age, gender and race. It was conducted between April 10 and 14 by Qualtrics, a survey research company.
A second survey, including 1,200 people from the first, will be conducted later this month. There is money for three surveys, but Hetherington hopes to find support for establishing the UNC survey as a regular monitor of attitudes as Americans cope with an enduring threat to public health and a test of their patience and their civil liberties.
In a presidential election year, there will be pressure to exploit both the public’s restlessness and its fears. But Hetherington said the best way to bring Americans through this crisis together is to keep politics out of it.
He said the UNC-CH survey confirms the widespread respect for not only frontline health care workers, but all essential workers. He suggested that politicians turn to those people to ask for public for cooperation and sacrifice.
“Understanding who is going to be persuasive is really important,” he said, “and the people who might be the most persuasive are the least political among us.”
Barnett: nbarnett@newsobserver.com, 919-829-4512.
