UNC, undefeated. NC State, back in the race? Evaluating what’s possible at the midpoint

This was perhaps the first Saturday in North Carolina that really felt like fall. Crisp temperatures in the morning. A cool breeze even as the day warmed. And, at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, and Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, those long autumn shadows covering the field in the afternoon. A sign as much as any other that fall has arrived and, with it, the heart of college football season.

It’s half over now for N.C. State, which has played six games. And it’s close enough to half over for Duke and North Carolina, both of which have played five. The season is no longer young. It has some wisdom to it now (some of which Mario Cristobal could’ve used in the final minute at Miami Saturday night, but that’s neither here nor there). Teams have created identities.

We have a pretty good idea (we think) of where this is all headed, and what’s possible and not. In the Triangle, many an October has arrived with locals ready to fast forward to basketball season. But not this October. Hope abounds in Chapel Hill and Durham, where UNC and Duke are in the midst of the kind of starts (5-0 for the Tar Heels; 4-1 for the Blue Devils) they’ve rarely had.

Even at N.C. State — where one half expected to arrive at Carter-Finley Saturday to a sign saying, “Abandon Hope All Ye Who Enter Here” — there’s, well, a bit of rekindled hope. Wasn’t pretty against Marshall, but 48 points is 48 points, and it’d been a while since the Wolfpack looked competent on offense (even with the turnovers).

At the midpoint (or close enough), let’s look at the football possibilities in the Triangle:

Duke (4-1, 1-0 ACC)

Remaining schedule: vs. N.C. State; at Florida State; at Louisville; vs. Wake Forest; at UNC; at Virginia; vs. Pitt

Best case: Riley Leonard returns as soon as possible and, in the meantime, Duke doesn’t skip (much of) a beat in his absence. The key questions surrounding Duke are, one, how long will Leonard be out and, two, how good are his backups (Henry Belin IV and Grayson Loftis)? Because Duke has everything else to reach the ACC championship game.

The defense is there. The talent at the skill positions is there. The culture and intangibles are there.

But when will Leonard be there, in his return? If it’s soon, Duke can play its way to Charlotte, and the ACC Championship game.

Worst case: The remaining schedule is difficult. A road trip to Louisville didn’t look all that daunting a month ago, but does now. And the Blue Devils also have to go to Florida State and North Carolina? That’s rough. The home game this weekend against N.C. State will undoubtedly come with a lot of red in attendance, too.

With Leonard, Duke could win any and all of those games (well, maybe not in Tallahassee). But without him? It’s difficult to predict what Duke will look like on offense while Leonard is out. The longer he is, though, the more difficult it becomes to see the Blue Devils remaining in the thick of the ACC race. Even so, Duke shouldn’t slip below 7-5, even in a worst case scenario.

Realistic case: An 8-4 or 9-3 finish seems reasonable, with the ceiling rising or lowering with how long Leonard is out.

North Carolina (5-0, 2-0)

Remaining schedule: vs. Miami; vs. Virginia; at Georgia Tech; vs. Campbell; vs. Duke; at Clemson; at N.C. State

Best case: Like, best best case? Like no-dream-is-too-big, let’s-get-crazy, the-ceiling-is-the-roof kind of best case? For the Tar Heels, that’d be entering the ACC Championship game at 12-0. It’s in play, after what was probably UNC’s most complete game in years on Saturday. The offense is loaded, and led by arguably the best quarterback in the country in Drake Maye. The defense has exceeded expectations.

So, why not? Dream big. UNC has a real shot of winning its first ACC title since 1980.

Worst case: Even with some legitimate challenges ahead — Miami, Duke, at Clemson, at State (and road trips to Atlanta and Georgia Tech have never been kind to UNC) — it’s hard to see UNC losing more than three games, at worst. And something would’ve had to go wrong for the Tar Heels to finish worse than 10-2.

There’s just too much talent here on offense. The defense is gaining confidence by the week. The worst of worst cases for UNC may be finishing in a three-way tie for first place and losing the tiebreaker to make the championship game on some weird, ACC football stuff. That’d be gutting, indeed.

Realistic case: 10-2 or 11-1, with a strong chance of playing Florida State for the ACC title.

N.C. State (4-2, 1-1)

Remaining schedule: at Duke; vs. Clemson; vs. Miami; at Wake Forest; at Virginia Tech; vs. UNC

Best case: The good news for the Wolfpack is that it’s 4-2 and hasn’t yet played a complete game, or even all that well in any game (outside of against VMI). The victory Saturday against Marshall, while not one for an Art of Football exhibit, was still the kind that could ignite a team, given how State found a way to win.

With MJ Morris at quarterback, the offense is clearly better. The defense is good enough to keep the Wolfpack in every game. So the best of best cases? It’s really probably 8-4 but if you’re the most hopeful of optimists, sure, go ahead and dream of 9-3. The Wolfpack gave one away against Louisville, so maybe the Football Gods give one back in the coming weeks.

Worst case: There’s not a game left on the schedule that N.C. State can’t lose. Wake and Virginia Tech offer State the best chances of winning, even if both are on the road, but it’s conceivable that there’s only one more win here (and would State fans take that scenario, if they could guarantee that the one win come at the very end of the regular season? Maybe).

If the offense reverts back to its pre-Marshall form for the rest of conference play, and if the defense continues to allow the occasional big play, and if State is just downright unlucky, a 5-7 finish (or, gulp, losing out) isn’t out of the question.

Realistic case: A 6-6 finish sounds about right, and if State gets to 7-5, that’d be an accomplishment for this group, with this schedule.

One big thing

Don’t look now but there’s Drake Maye, moving ever so slowly back into the Heisman race. Maye during UNC’s 40-7 victory against Syracuse Saturday threw for 442 yards and three touchdowns. Not bad. It was his best game of the season, one of the best of his time at UNC and, oh yes, Tez Walker is back. You may have heard the news. The most important part of Maye’s Heisman candidacy is that UNC keep winning. If it does, it means he’s continuing to play well. And if those two things keep happening, he has a good chance to wind up in New York in December.

Realignment rumblings

OK, hear me out: Are you sure you want to join a new league? There’s a Brotherhood of Discontent in the ACC, with certain schools (and their fans) ready to leave yesterday. But as a reminder that such moves rarely ever work out all that well for the departed, take a look at the Big 12. Newcomers Cincinnati, Houston and UCF are a combined 0-7 in conference play. That’ll leave a mark. If you want more proven data, we hear Maryland and Nebraska (among others) can provide some.

Three to like

1. Tez Walker makes his debut. It took long enough, but the NCAA (finally) did the right thing last week in granting Walker, the UNC wide receiver, his eligibility. His numbers in his debut Saturday (six catches for 43 yards) weren’t necessarily eye-popping but one of his receptions, near the sideline, was. It’s easy to see what Walker can bring to UNC’s already-potent offense.

2. M.J. Morris elevates State’s offense. The Wolfpack could only go up from where it was offensively but, even so, nobody envisioned that it’d improve to the degree it did Saturday. There are still plenty of rough spots, especially among the receiving corps, but with Morris at quarterback there may just be enough here for State to surprise some folks during the second half of its schedule.

3. Saturday Night Live, in the Triangle. Looking ahead, this Saturday offers the chance to be a memorable one. UNC will host Miami in one primetime, nationally-televised game at Kenan Stadium. Down the road, in Durham, will be another, between Duke and N.C. State. There’s been plenty of nights like this in basketball around here but far fewer in football.

Three to ... not like as much

1. Randy Woodson remains silent. Here we are, almost a month and a half after the ACC decided to expand, and the school president who cast the most important vote refuses to explain his decision. Woodson ducked questions last week at a Centennial Authority meeting and made clear he has no plans to discuss the reasoning behind his ACC expansion vote. Woodson’s refusal to talk is certainly one way to handle questions.

2. Boo to boos, booers. We get it, N.C. State fans. It’s been a somewhat underwhelming start to the season, yes. But the Wolfpack is 4-2. Dave Doeren has built a solid, competitive program. Yes, State hasn’t won the ACC in 44 years in football, but that’s not this team’s fault. So what’s with the booing? Are things really that bad? A reminder that they can always get worse.

3. Miami, finding yet another strange and unbelievable way to disappoint. The Hurricanes have been consistently underwhelming since joining the ACC almost 20 years ago (and have done a lot of harm to the league’s health in the process) but Saturday night might’ve been a new low, losing the way they did against Georgia Tech. Just take the knee, Mario Cristobal. One could argue Miami has been taking a knee in the ACC since it joined, and it couldn’t do it now?

This week’s best program in the state

A caveat, here: Most of North Carolina’s FBS schools took the week off. Appalachian State, Charlotte, Duke and ECU all didn’t play. Even if it’d been a full slate, it’d be difficult to beat what UNC did against Syracuse. The Tar Heels dominated on both sides. The result was never in doubt. Mack Brown said it was likely the most complete performance since his return, which isn’t difficult to believe. It was probably UNC’s best performance since at least 2015.

Carolinas ranking

1. North Carolina (if the Tar Heels get past Miami, they should be unbeaten entering Duke game on Nov. 11); 2. Duke (annnnd ... the rankings start getting dicey from here); 3. Clemson (not exactly the most inspired performance against Wake Saturday); 4. N.C. State (the Pack has an offense now?); 5. South Carolina (The Spurrier Bowl commences Saturday); 6. Wake Forest; 7. App State; 8. ECU (Pirates, Coastal and Charlotte: the Trio of Sadness); 9. Coastal Carolina; 10. Charlotte.

Final thoughts, in no particular order

▪ I think the way UNC played Saturday should be the expectation. That was the Tar Heels playing a clean game, to their potential. There’s no reason why they can’t maintain that level on a consistent basis. And, if they do ... see you in Charlotte, Tar Heels.

▪ I think a couple of big offseason quarterback moves show the grass isn’t always greener for players looking for new homes, and transferring. The Brennan Armstrong experiment hasn’t exactly worked out at N.C. State. Devin Leary, who left State after last season, hasn’t played particularly well at Kentucky. There’s something to be said for staying put where you’ve had success.

▪ I think, on that note, the biggest off-season question for N.C. State will be whether it can keep KC Concepcion, the budding freshman star at receiver. In the college sports of the not-so distant past, State fans could look at Concepcion and wonder what he’d be like as a junior or senior. Now, they wonder whether a player like that will be back as a sophomore, or transfer.

▪ I think State’s ugly loss against Louisville a little while back doesn’t look so bad now, after Louisville’s victory against Notre Dame on Saturday night. And now the Cardinals have the easiest path to the ACC title game.