Should Uni-President China Holdings (HKG:220) Be Disappointed With Their 46% Profit?

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By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. For example, Uni-President China Holdings Ltd (HKG:220) shareholders have seen the share price rise 46% over three years, well in excess of the market return (5.9%, not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 19% in the last year, including dividends.

See our latest analysis for Uni-President China Holdings

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During three years of share price growth, Uni-President China Holdings achieved compound earnings per share growth of 12% per year. We don't think it is entirely coincidental that the EPS growth is reasonably close to the 13% average annual increase in the share price. This observation indicates that the market's attitude to the business hasn't changed all that much. Quite to the contrary, the share price has arguably reflected the EPS growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

SEHK:220 Past and Future Earnings, September 17th 2019
SEHK:220 Past and Future Earnings, September 17th 2019

We know that Uni-President China Holdings has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Uni-President China Holdings will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Uni-President China Holdings, it has a TSR of 55% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Uni-President China Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 19% over one year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 5.2%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. Importantly, we haven't analysed Uni-President China Holdings's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.

Of course Uni-President China Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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