‘Union Joe’ Falls Behind Trump in Michigan Among Autoworkers, Women
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Michigan has a Democratic governor and Democratic control of the state legislature, yet the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll signals trouble for Joe Biden in a state that will help decide next year's presidential election.
The poll shows that former President Donald Trump now leads Biden in Michigan by 46% to 42%, a jump from the tie the surveys reported in October and November. Trump’s lead matches the margin of error of 4 percentage points.
The latest data holds one surprise: Union workers in Michigan are starting to lean toward Trump. That's despite Biden's visit to Detroit in September when he walked the picket line with striking UAW members who were demanding better working conditions and pay. Trump made a visit of his own to non-union workers around that time to court voters.
“They’ve had a chance now to see Joe Biden in action, and I don’t think they like what they see,” Brian Pannebecker, who recently retired from a Ford axle factory and now runs the Auto Workers for Trump Facebook page, said on Bloomberg’s Big Take podcast.
Some of the discontent may have to do with the accelerated shift to electric vehicles that Biden policies are aiming for. Bloomberg’s Jeff Green, who covers Michigan, said clean-energy policies for the auto industry raise fears of job losses among rank-and-file workers.
Green also notes that economic concerns are weighing heavily on the minds of Michigan voters. “What they want is a better economy with lower prices and they're concerned that maybe Biden isn't bringing them that,” he said. “Trump does really well with his populist message.”
Methodology
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll surveyed 4,935 registered voters in seven swing states: 796 registered voters in Arizona, 801 in Georgia, 703 in Michigan, 451 in Nevada, 704 in North Carolina, 799 in Pennsylvania and 681 in Wisconsin. The surveys were conducted online from Nov. 27 to Dec. 6, and the aggregated data across the seven swing states were weighted to approximate a target sample of swing state registered voters based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital status, home ownership, 2020 presidential vote and state. State-level data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters in the respective state based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital status, home ownership, and 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states; 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; 4 percentage points in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and 5 percentage points in Nevada.
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This episode was produced by: Anna Mazarakis
Senior Producer: Naomi Shavin
Editors: Caitlin Kenney, Mike Shepard
Executive Producer: Sage Bauman
Sound Design/Engineer: Blake Maples
Fact-checker: Julia Press
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