Unpacking Mississippi State basketball's March Madness bubble heading into SEC Tournament

STARKVILLE — It’s championship week in college basketball, which for Mississippi State means a final countdown to Selection Sunday. Whether MSU makes the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019 is close to being determined, and every game this week seems to have some implications.

First, there are bubble teams in a similar situation to Mississippi State’s. That’s why the Big Ten tournament is worth watching with teams such as Rutgers, Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan looking to secure their spot.

There are bid stealers also worth worrying about. That’s where non-Power Five brackets such as Conference USA come into play. Florida Atlantic sits at No. 15 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, meaning the Owls likely don’t have to win their conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament.

However, if another C-USA team makes a surprising run and takes the title, it could make the conference a two-bid league and steal a spot from a bubble team.

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The scoreboard most worth watching will be in Nashville when No. 9-seeded MSU opens SEC Tournament play against No. 8 seed Florida on Thursday (noon, SEC Network). If the Bulldogs come away with a win, they could be in a favorable spot heading into Friday’s matchup with top-seeded Alabama.

Heading into March Madness, here’s a look at where Mississippi State sits in various projections.

ESPN

Joe Lunardi has the Bulldogs atop his last four in. Nevada, Wisconsin and Penn State round out that section while Pittsburgh, NC State, Auburn and Rutgers sit in the last four byes.

Lunardi has Mississippi State going to Dayton, Ohio, for an 11-seed play-in game against Penn State. The winner would advance to face 6-seed San Diego State in Columbus, Ohio.

CBS

Jerry Palm follows a similar model as Lunardi with MSU facing Penn State in a play-in game. Palm has Mississippi State only below Penn State among the last four in.

He has the winner advancing to face TCU, which could create a rematch of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge from January. The Bulldogs took down the Horned Frogs to spark a February run.

FOX

Michael DeCourcy also has Mississippi State heading to Dayton, though he has MSU squaring off against Wisconsin. The Badgers are coming off a tight win Sunday against Minnesota – a team Mississippi State beat by 18 in December.

Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter @skrajisnik3.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Unpacking Mississippi State basketball's March Madness bubble