Unseasonably Warm This Week, Colder Mid-Month
As I type this around 7:30 am….here’s the headlines:
Clouds hold into the early afternoon
Dry air mixes in and the clouds eventually thin out…so sunshine later this afternoon
Partly to mostly sunny Sunday through Tuesday, partly to mostly cloudy Wed.
Dry Saturday through Wednesday, Rain showers Thu. PM into Friday
Unseasonably warm this week. 40’s early in the week, 50s possible Thu./Fri
Cooler pattern for the middle of February
No snow this coming week, snow likely the following week
Breezy next Thursday/Friday
Here’s a satellite pic. from around 1 pm. The clouds are rapidly breaking up on land (mixing with drier air)…they are holding over the Great Lakes, but even there clouds should shrink in area. When it comes to Michigan wintertime clouds, we have what I call the “stratus quo”. As the day goes on, drier air will mix in and these clouds should dissipate, leaving us with a good amount of sunshine for the mid-late afternoon.
Once the clouds break up, we should climb to the upper 30s to low 40s today. That’s about 10 degrees warmer than average for Feb. 3. We have a good shot for mostly sunny skies Sunday and Monday. Both mornings will be cool and any puddles from melting snow will freeze at night, producing a slick spot or two in the early morning. Roads should be clear and dry through Wednesday.
Showers are likely from Thursday evening (maybe Thu. PM) through Saturday AM. We could see half an inch of rain. I’ve been talking about this for a week now….but temperatures are likely to reach into the 50s toward Thu./Fri. It gets windy. The GFS has a steady 20-25 mph wind here Friday afternoon.
Sorry, Mr. Groundhog, winter isn’t over. Check this out. This is snowfall through the early morning of Feb. 13th from the European model. it forecasts a nice stripe of snow across Lower Michigan – 6.7″ total for Grand Rapids. Now, calm down. First, this is for snow that may fall toward the end of the 10-day period. Second we look to these long-range models for general trends, not daily specifics. The model can’t tell for sure that half a foot of snow will fall around Feb. 12th, but it tells me it’s possible and to keep checking each model run. So, no snow here next week…but winter returns the following week.
Here’s forecast high and low temperatures from the European model for the next 10 days…40s through Tuesday, 50 on Wednesday, mid 50s on Thursday and low-mid 50s on Friday. After that temperatures trend downward with just mid 30s (and maybe some snow) for the 11th/12th.
Here’s the forecast high and low temperatures from the GFS model. Same story…40s through Wed., mid 50s Thu./Fri., then cooler air moves in and for a week it just gets colder and colder with highs back at least to average by the middle of the month.
This is interesting. Look at the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Sunday. There’s a very rare Marginal Risk Area along the California Coast. Note that this weeks big Golf Tournament is being played at Pebble Beach on the ocean this weekend. A postponement is certainly possible. SPC says: “…a brief tornado and/or a severe gust attendant to low-topped, lightning-producing convection may develop in the afternoon to early evening.“
Also, note the Slight and Marginal Risk Areas for the Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms in Florida occur mostly likely during years when we have a moderate to strong El Nino Pattern (which we do this winter). Something to keep in mind if you’re in Florida over the next couple months.
A couple of final notes…Friday, I had the pleasure of emceeing the Math Counts competition at GVSU downtown. Over a hundred “mathletes” competed. This was the 33rd consecutive year that I have been the emcee for this event.
The winning school was Calvin Christian Middle School. Second place went to Northern Hills MIddle School, In third place was a combined group of home schoolers and fourth place went to Grand Rapids Christian Middle School.
The individual winter (earning a scholarship to GVSU) was Akshay Kanna from Northern Hills Middle School. Second place went to Ezra MacBrien from Calvin Christian Middle School. Third place, also from Calvin Christian was Bryce Mouw and fourth place to Siddhant Sinha from Forest Hills Eastern Middle School
I’ll be at the Auto Show at Devos Place this afternoon from 4 – 6 pm. WOOD TV8 will have a display in the main lobby as you come in. It’ll be Olympic-themed, so look for the Eiffel Tower.
This was Bittersweet Ski Area Friday afternoon. They have snow, people were out with their skis and boards. Pretty much all ski areas in Michigan have snow and are open this weekend, including Cannonsburg, Swiss Valley, Timber Ridge and Bittersweet. Here’s a complete list.
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