Updated ESPN FPI game-by-game chances of Ohio State winning each remaining game on the schedule
The Ohio State football team moved to 5-0 after a 49-10 blowout win against Rutgers. Now, it’s on to its first road contest, against Michigan State, next Saturday. The Buckeyes may have looked like a rusty, first-game unit against Notre Dame during Week 1, but since then, OSU has looked more like the team we all thought it would.
But what about the national narrative, or rather, what does ESPN’s Football Percentage Index say about the Buckeyes? Each week, the matchup predictor ESPN updates Ohio State’s chances of winning each game based on the results across the country, and each week we see the needle move a little for each game.
So, what does the model say about the Buckeyes’ chances of winning the rest of its regular season games after another dominant performance, this time against the Scarlet Knights?
Well, we’re glad you asked, or at least we’re glad you are here, and we made you think about it by reading this.
Here’s where that rating system stands after five weeks of the season.
Saturday, Oct. 8, at Michigan State
Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne (10) hands the ball to running back Jarek Broussard (3) during the first half at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022. USA TODAY Sports
Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Michigan)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 87.9% (up from 87.7% last week)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 35-15
Projected running record: 6-0
Saturday, Oct. 22, vs. Iowa
Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum (65) gets ready to snap the ball during an NCAA Big Ten Conference football game against Rutgers, Saturday, Sept. 7, 2019, at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. USA TODAY Sports
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 94.8% (no change from last week)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 46-15-3
Projected running record: 7-0
Saturday, Oct. 29, at Penn State
USA TODAY Sports Network
Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 73.9% (no change from last week)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 22-14
Projected running record: 8-0
Saturday, Nov. 5, at Northwestern
Sept. 10, 2022; Evanston, Illinois; Northwestern Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald looks on during the first quarter against the Duke Blue Devils at Ryan Field. Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 98.4% (no change from last week)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 64-14-1
Projected running record: 9-0
Saturday, Nov. 12, vs. Indiana
Indiana’s Connor Bazelak (9) throws during the Indiana versus Idaho football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022. USA TODAY Sports
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 97.9% (no change from last week)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 77-12-5
Projected running record: 10-0
Saturday, Nov. 19, at Maryland
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Maryland Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 84.5% (down from 84.6% last week)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 7-0
Projected running record: 11-0
Saturday, Nov. 26, vs. Michigan
Sept. 24, 2022; Ann Arbor; Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) rushes in the second half against the Maryland Terrapins at Michigan Stadium. Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 78.8% (no change from last week)
All-Time Series | OSU trails 51-59-6
Projected Final Regular Season record: 12-0
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