Updated ESPN game-by-game win probabilities after Sooners win over Kansas
The win against Kansas left a sour taste in the mouths of the coaches, players, fans, and voters as the Oklahoma Sooners had to rally from 10 down at halftime to beat the one-win Jayhawks 35-23 on Saturday.
This week, it appears the computers and the voters are in alignment. The Oklahoma Sooners fell in the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll as well as the AP Top 25. They also fell in ESPN’s Football Power Index while much of the Big 12 rose in that rating system and their chances of making the College Football Playoff dropped per FiveThirtyEight.
As a result, in this week’s updated win game-by-game win probabilities, the Oklahoma Sooners’ chance of winning grew slimmer after another underwhelming win in the 2021 college football season. Though the Sooners are the projected winner in each of their remaining four games, more and more of the simulations are projecting wins for their opponents than they were last week.
The trend is troubling, but the reality for the Oklahoma Sooners is as long as they continue to win, they’ll be in a position to contend for the Big 12 championship and will find themselves in the College Football Playoff.
As we take a look at the win probabilities of the Oklahoma Sooners’ four remaining games, let’s remember what former owner of the Raiders said:
“Just win baby!”
Oct. 30 vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Oct 9, 2021; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders wide receiver Erik Ezukanma (13) rushes in the second half against the Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Jones AT&T Stadium. Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 88.6% (down from 90%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 22-6
Projected running record: 9-0
Nov. 13 at Baylor Bears
Oct 16, 2021; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears running back Abram Smith (7) runs for a touchdown against the Brigham Young Cougars during the second half at McLane Stadium. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
McLane Stadium
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 66.2% (down from 71.3%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 28-3
Projected running record: 10-0
Nov. 20 vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Oct 16, 2021; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Iowa State Cyclones running back Breece Hall (28) takes the first play from scrimmage for a 65-yard touchdown in the first quarter against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 63.2% (down from 65.7%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 77-7-2
Projected running record: 11-0
Nov. 27 at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oct 2, 2021; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Jaylen Warren (7) jumps after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Baylor Bears at Boone Pickens Stadium. Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports
Boone Pickens Stadium
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 64.1% (down from 71.2%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 90-18-7
Projected running record: 12-0
Where do the Sooners go from Here?
Oct 23, 2021; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Caleb Williams (13) runs against the Kansas Jayhawks during the first half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
The Oklahoma Sooners have a lot to figure out of the next few weeks. After Texas Tech, the Sooners will get a chance to rest and recuperate with their lone bye week of the season.
With a three-game stretch against Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State to close out the season after the bye, the Sooners will need to be the healthiest they’ve been all year and hungriest. They won’t be able to keep their undefeated season alive with poor efforts down the stretch. A half like they played against Kansas would have gotten them beat against a better team.
Hopefully, the Oklahoma Sooners can put the inconsistent play behind them as they work toward a seventh straight Big 12 Championship.
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