Updated Sooners game-by-game win probabilities per ESPN FPI after win over TCU

·3 min read

The Oklahoma Sooners beat the TCU Horned Frogs 52-31 on Saturday in a game that at times felt closer than the scoreboard indicated, but was never really close after TCU pulled within three in the second quarter.

The Oklahoma Sooners moved to 7-0 and 4-0 in the Big 12 and continue their march to the Big 12 championship game in Arlington, Texas. With the Kansas Jayhawks and the Texas Tech Red Raiders, the Sooners should be 9-0 before they enter their tough three-game stretch against Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State to close out the season.

On Saturday, Caleb Williams was phenomenal in helping the Sooners break their trend of one-score wins against FBS opponents. Though it was against a TCU defense that has struggled this year, Williams and the Sooners’ offense was dominant.

Oklahoma has some things to figure out defensively, most importantly, can they get healthy, because it’s clear they’re missing Woodi Washington, Jalen Redmond, and Delarrin Turner-Yell.

As we take a look at the rest of the schedule, the Sooners continue to be the projected winner in each of their five remaining games according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

Oct. 23 at Kansas Jayhawks

Oct 16, 2021; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks wide receiver Luke Grimm (11) scores a touchdown as Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive back Cameron Watts (21) misses the tackle during the second half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 98.6% (up from 98.4%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 78-27-6

Projected running record: 8-0

Oct. 30 vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oct 16, 2021; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders tight end Mason Tharp (80) catches a pass as Kansas Jayhawks safety Kenny Logan Jr. (1) defends during the second half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 90% (down from 90.4%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 22-6

Projected running record: 9-0

Nov. 13 at Baylor Bears

Oct 16, 2021; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears running back Abram Smith (7) runs for a touchdown against the Brigham Young Cougars during the second half at McLane Stadium. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

McLane Stadium

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 71.3% (down from 72.4%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 28-3

Projected running record: 10-0

Nov. 20 vs. Iowa State Cyclones

Oct 16, 2021; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Iowa State Cyclones running back Breece Hall (28) takes the first play from scrimmage for a 65-yard touchdown in the first quarter against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 65.7% (up from 65%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 77-7-2

Projected running record: 11-0

Nov. 27 at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oct 16, 2021; Austin, Texas, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders (3) runs in to the end zone for a touchdown in second half against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

Boone Pickens Stadium

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 71.2% (down from 74.6%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 90-18-7

Projected running record: 12-0

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