Updated UW Coronavirus Model Predicts Earlier Peaks, Fewer Deaths

SEATTLE, WA — An updated model from the University of Washington predicts deaths resulting from the coronavirus will peak Monday in Washington and continue on a downward trajectory into May. The model, which earlier projected 1,400 deaths linked to COVID-19 in Washington, now forecasts 632 deaths.

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As of Monday evening, the state health department had confirmed 8,384 cases in Washington and 372 deaths. Across the United States, the death toll surpassed 10,000 Monday, with the largest surge expected to arrive in the days ahead.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said the new projections are based on a "massive infusion of new data" from several U.S. states and considered the timeframe for outbreak peaks seen internationally after strict social distancing measures were put in place.

"The time for implementation of social distancing to the peak of the epidemic in the Italy and Spain location is shorter than what was observed in Wuhan," researchers wrote. "As a result, in several states in the U.S., today's updates show an earlier predicted date of peak daily deaths, even though at the national level the change is not very pronounced."

Continuing those efforts, IHME says, is crucial to minimizing the number of patients who die from the disease.

"As we noted previously, the trajectory of the pandemic will change — and dramatically for the worse — if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions," said Dr. Christopher Murray, the IHME director. "Our projections are strengthened by new downturns in more regions. This is evidence that social distancing is crucial. Our forecasts assume that social distancing remains in place until the end of May."

Nationally, the institute's projections remain largely on-track with earlier models, but its highest estimates are lower. The updated model forecasts 81,766 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., ranging between 49,431 and 136,401, and peaking April 16, with more than 3,100 deaths in a single day.

If people continue to adhere to social distancing mandates in Washington, the model predicts the state will not have a shortage of hospital beds or ventilators. On Sunday, Gov. Jay Inslee announced Washington would return more than 400 ventilators to the federal stockpile to assist other states grappling with more severe outbreaks.

This article originally appeared on the Seattle Patch