UPS workers headed for nationwide strike: How NY would be impacted

New Yorkers could expect to see lengthy shipping delays if United Parcel Service workers go on strike early next month.

In June, UPS's union, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, authorized a strike beginning Aug. 1 if a new contract is not agreed upon when the union’s current National Master Agreement expires on July 31.

And it could become "one of the costliest in at least a century," according to a study by Michigan-based consulting firm Anderson Economic Group.

University of Tennessee Global Supply Chain Institute fellow and former UPS executive Alan Amling was hopeful both entities would reach an agreement before July 31, preventing a stoppage. However, his opinion has changed as the date looms closer.

"I think it's more likely that there will be a strike, at least for a short period," Amling said.

UPS said in a statement Thursday negotiations will resume next week and the company has already reached agreements with the Teamsters on nearly all of their stated priorities.

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How could New Yorkers be impacted by a UPS strike?

Those living in more rural areas throughout the state are more likely to feel the impact of a strike, Amling said.

Big box stores and other shipping networks like Walmart, Target and Amazon are more readily available in and near bigger cities, according to Amling, and don't rely on UPS to complete product delivery.

"For the consumer, if (a strike goes on for) less than two weeks, the impact for urban and suburban areas, for the most part, will be limited," Amling said. "And for rural areas, it will be pretty dramatic. If it goes beyond two weeks, everyone's going to be impacted."

Will UPS packages be delivered?

You will still get your deliveries, but expect delays.

UPS claims it delivers 6% of the nation's gross domestic product on a daily basis, so there will be a large impact, as other carriers can only absorb about 30% of what UPS carries, Amling said.

If the strike lasts beyond two weeks, shipments typically landing on your doorstep in one to five days will take up to a week or more, Amling said.

And if it extends past a month, Amling said broader impacts are to be expected because the extended supply chain, including manufacturing and service operations, will take a hit.

"We've been through this before," Amling said, likening it to the early days of the pandemic. "It's going to be Groundhog Day for consumers."

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How UPS will handle the shortage of workers

UPS does have contingency plans in place, according to Amling, which includes leveraging management employees and personal vehicle drivers who are not part of the Teamsters but a separate entity UPS purchased last year called Roadie.

"Many of our U.S. employees will participate in training that would help them safely serve our customers if there is a labor disruption," a UPS spokesperson said via email Thursday.

But, Amling said, it won't be enough to make up for the loss.

"You don't make up for the capacity of 20 million packages being taken from the market on Aug 1.," Amling said. "UPS will definitely be very strategic in the accounts that they focus on and they protect."

For example, he expects UPS will prioritize the healthcare supply chain and ensure health-related packages are delivered during a potential strike.

"I think you're going to see a big effort there and probably to a lesser extent on ecommerce shipments," Amling said.

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This article originally appeared on New York State Team: UPS strike: Here's how New Yorkers could be impacted