US population projected to stop growing in 60 years, census says. Why will it drop?
The U.S. population is expected to stop growing by 2080 as deaths will begin to outpace birth rates and immigration, new data from the Census Bureau shows.
The findings, released Nov. 9, use data from the 2020 Census to illustrate how fertility, aging population and lower rates of migration than previously projected contribute to eventual population decline.
Population growth is still projected to continue until 2080, just at much more sluggish rates than in the past.
However, another milestone approaches more quickly.
By 2030, the percentage of the population over 65 will exceed the population under 18, data shows. Only a few years later in 2038, the population is expected to hit “natural decrease,” which is when there are more deaths than births.
Immigration
For a while, immigration will be the main factor buoying growth.
Sandra Johnson, the chief of the Population Evaluation, Analysis and Projections Branch at the Census Bureau, said part of the reason for the decline is researchers are projecting slower growth through immigration than before.
She said, eventually, immigration likely can’t outpace the other two big forces at play slowing growth.
“We have our projections of foreign born immigration, which for a while are higher than natural decrease that we’re projecting and are able to sustain the population but eventually, they’re not,” Johnson told McClatchy News. “And then we see the population decline.”
The population figures are still only projections, and can vary widely depending on different immigration scenarios, Johnson said.
One of the bureau’s models accounting for high immigration predicts the population to reach 435 million in 2100, while the middle model puts it at 366 million.
No matter which immigration model is used, the population of the U.S. is expected to become more racially and ethnically diverse, with over a quarter of the population identifying as Hispanic or Latino by 2060.
Higher levels of immigration may also add an influx of younger people, the bureau says, as the population continues to age overall.
Immigration has helped the U.S. delay the declining population longer than other countries, William Frey of the Brookings Institution told CNN.
“The reason we’re not aging as rapidly as many other countries — not just China, but a lot of countries in Europe, as well — is because we’ve had several decades of immigration and the children of immigrants and the grandchildren of immigrants helping to make our country younger than it would have been if we had not had them,” Frey said.
Fertility rates
Fertility rates have been declining in different corners of the globe. Socioeconomic factors, ranging from delaying marriage to issues like the Great Recession, have played a part in lower fertility rates in the U.S., researchers said.
Aging populations have some worried about a greater strain on the social safety net, with fewer workers able to support a growing population of older individuals.
Others have argued that shrinking populations could ease humans’ ecological footprint on the planet.
“There has been a wide body of research looking at climate change, sea level rise and the impact that that has on the population,” Johnson told McClatchy News. “So this is something that could be valuable to people who are interested in knowing more about that.”
The census data is important because it also helps policymakers make decisions, Johnson said.
“Projections are a useful planning tool, though, because they help us understand how the size and the composition of the population could change in the future,” Johnson said. “And that does have implications for healthcare, for the labor force, the economy and education, to name just a few examples.”
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