Is the US in recession? It's not all about GDP
STORY: Some early estimates say the U.S. economy shrank from April to June, as measured by GDP
Add to that the decline in Q1, and the often-cited rule of thumb says America is in recession
But deciding when a recession has begun isn't that straightforward
Rather than a broad measure like GDP, economists will look at jobs, industrial production and incomes
There has never been a recession declared without a loss of employment
And hundreds of thousands of jobs are being added monthly in the U.S.
Industrial production, a metric used to declare the 2001 recession, has also been rising steadily through May
A closer to real-time recession indicator, called the Sahm rule, is based on the unemployment rate
It shows no sign of a U.S. downturn, with unemployment below 4% since January
Still, personal consumption data from May has sparked a host of gloomy forecasts
And that’s increased speculation that a downturn is coming soon, if it is not already here