With uncertainty regarding if the U.S. economy will enter a recession in 2023, one economist laid out several reasons why he believes that likely won’t occur.

Michael Drury, chief economist of McVean Trading & Investments, was the keynote speaker at The Greater Memphis Chamber Chairman’s Circle's annual “State of the Economy for Greater Memphis” event Wednesday at Memphis Botanic Garden. His speech focused on why the U.S. is unlikely to enter a recession in 2023.

“I’d say probably about 75% of economists currently think that’s where we’re going,” Drury said. “I don’t think so. I’ve been different for pretty much the last three years than the consensus call from the economists.”

Here are two reasons why Drury does not think a recession is near in 2023 and one source of concern for him.

Current business profits don't indicate a recession

Drury said historically there has always been a massive slide in profits for businesses heading into a recession as they typically would lay off workers and adjust their cost structure to survive.

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Though with the COVID-19 pandemic, because more money was available for businesses through the federal government, they were able to make adjustments without resorting to layoffs, Drury said.

“In fact, they were able to keep employees,” he said. “(They) didn’t have much of a recession in terms of profits and the economy stayed up. Now even though the money is being taken away over time, profits are still relatively strong because businesses have been smart about how they manage their businesses.”

An economist's rule also not indicator of a recession

About 20 years ago Drury came up with the “Drury Rule.” He said if you’re going to call a recession or boom you have to tell him three industries or three regions in the country that are either booming or in a lot of trouble.

“A recession is averages so somebody in a recession is doing worse,” he said. “Who is it? Then if you’re going to call it a boom you have to tell me three industries that are doing better. You have to identify the outliers.”

The housing industry is the only one Drury believes is in significant trouble. While industries such as energy, agriculture, defense, the auto industry and nonprofits are “winners” in the current economy.

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Student loan program a cause for concern

Drury said if a recession would occur, it depends on what happens next with the student loan debt saga.

His reasoning is an estimated 43 million households used to pay roughly $400 a month on student loan debt, up until three years ago. As a result, Drury said they’ve been spending that money and doing different things with it as opposed to paying off student loans.

Drury said it’s not ideal for consumers since they will go from having paid none for years to paying $200 or potentially more a month depending on how the matter is resolved, which he expects to happen in the third quarter of 2023.

“Hopefully, the economy will be moving along well enough that we can absorb, but that is the risk,” he said.

Omer Yusuf covers the Ford project in Haywood County, FedEx, tourism and banking for The Commercial Appeal. He can be reached via email Omer.Yusuf@commercialappeal.com or followed on Twitter @OmerAYusuf.

Outlook for Memphis economy in 2023

The Greater Memphis Chamber Chairman’s Circle hosted its annual “State of the Economy for Greater Memphis” event Wednesday morning at the Memphis Botanic Garden, which was attended by more than 300 people.

Greater Memphis Chamber President and CEO Ted Townsend told reporters after the event that 2023 “will be our springboard year.” The Greater Memphis Chamber’s current economic development pipeline includes 25 prospects, 7,162 estimated new jobs, $10.7 billion in estimated capital investment with an annual average wage of $52,513.

“We didn’t see as many announcements in 2022, I think there’s a rebound effect from having a record year in (2021), but we also understand Ford hasn’t announced their supplier list yet,” Townsend said. “I think that’s imminent. I believe that’s the watershed moment for us and all those projects we have in our pipeline they’re waiting for those announcements to occur to really unlock a lot of movement, so I think 2023 is our launch year, if you will, not just to where we were pre-pandemic. I think we’ve already gotten there, but now we’re going to see more growth in a lot of sectors.”

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Will US see a recession soon? Reasons why it won't