The US and UK air strikes could be the first of many
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Rishi Sunak said that the US-British air strikes on Houthi rebels were “limited, necessary and proportionate” but they have sent a clear message to the group’s leadership: many more will follow unless the attacks on commercial ships stop now.
The strikes came from air, sea and submarine forces stationed in the region as part of the US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian, and hit Houthi-controlled sites including weapons storage and drone launching facilities.
The US used a nearby submarine to launch Tomahawks – jet-powered missiles with a range of 1000 miles – to strike sites that have been used by the Houthis to launch at least 27 attacks on ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea. Jets were launched from the USS Dwight D Eisenhower aircraft carrier and scrambled from a base in the Middle East.
Rishi Sunak said that the RAF had carried out “targeted strikes” and that Royal Navy ships were on standby in the region to support further operations if necessary.
The attack shows the West had lost patience with the Iran-backed Houthis, who refused to listen to threats of Western military action, which have been telegraphed for weeks.
The Houthis, backed by Iran, have sent more than 100 projectiles and drones towards commercial ships in the Red Sea. Some 84 per cent of Houthi weapons have been destroyed by international warships before reaching their targets.
They have seized on the opportunity to attack ships in the Red Sea as this has already significantly boosted their international profile.
After all, the Saudi-Houthi civil war in Yemen has been grinding on for a decade with minimal international attention. But now, the attacks on shipping routes have put the Houthis at the centre of the Middle East crisis.
Houthis may see strikes as helpful to their cause
In fact, they may see a US-led series of strikes as beneficial, burnishing their status as international actors and drawing more support to their cause in the Arab world – the stated goal of these attacks being to force the Israelis to end their war with Hamas in Gaza.
Thursday night’s Western military action will not have come as a surprise to the Houthis: news of the imminent attack was briefed out to British newspapers several hours in advance.
Seeing the reports, Houthi officials responded that any military action would be met with equivalent force.
“We will confront America, kneel it down, and burn its battleships and all its bases and everyone who cooperates with it, no matter what the cost,” said Abdulsalam Jahaf, a member of the group’s security council.
With diplomacy having failed, the US-led coalition has been forced to compel the Houthis to stop by conducting strikes, in the hope of temporarily stopping the strikes and forcing the Houthis to the negotiating table.
These were precision - not blanket - counter strikes, aimed at deterrence. This was not a strike with the goal of regime change, as the US and UK conducted in Libya in 2011. Rather, the model appears to be that of the US-led air strikes against the Assad regime in Syria in 2018.
But the air strikes do run the risk of prompting retaliation in some form from Iran, which for years has built up the Houthis’ weapons supplies in its ten-year-long proxy war in Yemen against Saudi forces.
West risks deepening Saudi-Yemen conflict
Britain may have closely consulted with Saudi Arabia before taking Thursday night’s military action. The Saudis are trying to broker a ceasefire with the Houthis, having apparently concluded that they are too well-entrenched in Yemen to remove by military means.
Any major military action by the West risks upsetting that delicate process, especially with Iran - which may respond by sending yet more weapons to the Houthi rebels - watching closely.
Earlier on Thursday, the Houthis launched their 27th attack on commercial shipping since their campaign began, creating the right opportunity for the West to hit back. A statement released earlier in the day by the US military’s Central Command, which covers the Middle East, made no further threat of reprisals before the strikes were launched.
Western air strikes in Yemen are a significant milestone in the latest series of attacks – and the US-led coalition has the firepower to make a serious dent in the Houthis’ warfighting capability.
Joe Biden, the US president, said in his statement that he “will not hesitate to direct further measures” if the attacks continue.
But experts stress that Saudi Arabia has spent a decade trying to remove the Houthis from Yemen by force, and it hasn’t worked, even with the estimated death toll now standing at 370,000 people.
Houthis are mobile and hard to pin down
The Houthis are highly mobile, which creates challenges for retaliating to specific Houthi attacks. By the time any jets have arrived to carry out their attack, the Houthi units may have vanished. As the attacks were prepared on Thursday, there were reports the evacuation of weapons facilities in the region had already begun.
Rather than scaring off the Houthis, these Western strikes may just spur this Iranian proxy group into further action, including revenge missile and drone attacks on the southern Israeli city of Eilat, which is within range.
“If the extent of the Western response is limited missile attacks, you can well imagine the Houthis will pop their heads up quickly and launch new attacks towards Israel... it would have to be a pretty sustained campaign to knock the Houthis,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East & North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“They are essentially a militia operating with Iranian support and have learned over the last decade to work in a covert manner, because they have been targeted by the Saudi-led coalition,” he added.
Thursday night’s strikes have shifted the dial on the conflict – for better or for worse.
The next key question is how the Houthis will respond to Western armed intervention.
For the West, the preferred option would be that the group now looks to find a diplomatic solution – with the Houthis now fully aware that the US and its allies are serious about destroying their forces, should that prove necessary.
