USC, Alabama could fight for final College Football Playoff spot if Trojans lose to Utah
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Yes, yes, if USC beats Utah, we don’t need to have this conversation. USC could just beat Utah, win the Pac-12 title, finish 12-1, and go to the College Football Playoff without any questions asked. The Trojans are clearly in a “win and in” position after all the carnage which occurred on Saturday, including LSU losing to Texas A&M. LSU Wire has full coverage of that story.
Clemson was shocked by South Carolina.
That’s four teams in the top nine of the playoff rankings entering Saturday.
Of course USC is in the playoff with a win, but we have to entertain the question, “What if USC loses to Utah?” Can the Trojans still make it?
It’s possible.
Here’s what USC will need to get in, and here’s the set of variables you will need to consider:
OBVIOUS STUFF FIRST
If TCU and Michigan both lose, the door is truly open for USC. Let’s start there. USC would love for at least one of them to lose, but if both lose, it gets really interesting, and the Trojans would have a shot if they lose a close, competitive, well-played game to Utah.
IF TCU AND MICHIGAN LOSE
Yes, Michigan is a huge favorite over Purdue and is not likely to lose to the Boilermakers, but let’s play with this scenario for a bit.
TCU and Michigan losses would mean that Kansas State and Purdue would be conference champions. They’re obviously not in the playoff hunt. Clemson could be a two-loss ACC champion, but the ACC was horrible this year. You’re simply not going to have many conference champions in the playoff if TCU and Michigan lose their conference championship games.
Therefore, the idea that USC will be hurt specifically by a lack of a conference championship loses steam. That wouldn’t be the reason USC fails to get in. It would be a comparison of resumes and — let’s be honest here — what ESPN wants on TV in the playoff semifinals.
ESPN RUNS THIS SHOW, REMEMBER
If we think about what ESPN wants, having USC and Lincoln Riley in the playoff would be attractive. That Los Angeles market — a Western market — would be a powerful consideration.
However, when you realize that ESPN is going to be the SEC broadcaster for the long-term future of the conference, putting Alabama and Nick Saban in the mix would be hard for ESPN to turn down.
It’s not hard to imagine — in the event of a USC loss to Utah, plus losses by TCU and Michigan — Alabama sneaking in the back door. USC, however, would not be eliminated if TCU and Michigan both lost. The Trojans would receive consideration.
THE MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO
College football is crazy, and no one imagined Oregon losing to Oregon State after having a 21-point third-quarter lead. Few people imagined Clemson losing at home to South Carolina, either.
That said, it’s not likely Michigan will lose to Purdue. Let’s therefore go with the far more realistic scenario: TCU loses to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. TCU trailed KSU by 18 before rallying in the first meeting this season. That upset could definitely happen. Let’s work with this:
USC AND TCU BOTH LOSE
Georgia would be in the playoff. Michigan would be in.
This leaves two spots. USC and TCU, the teams currently in position to make the playoff, both lose.
The two teams which stand to benefit from this are Alabama and Ohio State. Yet, because Michigan beat Ohio State, the Buckeyes do not play an extra game next week. Their regular season is over.
In essence, we would have two teams for four spots.
USC, BAMA, TCU, OHIO STATE -- WHO'S IN?
Purely in terms of what ESPN wants for its entertainment program — as opposed to evaluating these four resumes based on actual, raw merit — USC would not be in a terrible position.
The Trojans would not be in a great position, but they wouldn’t be easily eliminated if we had this scenario of four teams for two spots.
TCU is the team most likely to be excluded if this scenario came to pass. The Frogs are not Texas or Oklahoma. We saw in 2014 that TCU’s achievements were devalued. Ohio State got in over TCU for the final playoff spot.
Strictly in terms of the backroom politics, TCU would be least likely to get in.
This leaves three teams for two spots.
3 TEAMS FOR 2 SPOTS
Again, we’re talking about the politics of this, not the actual quality of the teams. If it’s down to USC, Alabama, and Ohio State, the Trojans could be left out of the mix.
ESPN could have two Big Ten teams playing two SEC teams: Ohio State vs. Georgia in the Peach Bowl and Michigan vs. Alabama in the Fiesta Bowl. That might be hard for ESPN to resist.
However, with ESPN considering a possible Pac-12 media rights deal — with late-night inventory and late-night games no other conference has — it could be to ESPN’s advantage to include Alabama but exclude Ohio State, a Big Ten central property, and put USC in versus Georgia.
Yes, USC is moving to the Big Ten, but it isn’t there yet. ESPN might find value in making sure there’s only one current Big Ten team involved.
Getting that Los Angeles market could matter.
THE ACTUAL MERITS
If we are not talking about politics but only about a comparison of resumes, USC looks pretty good. It would be a problem that USC had two losses to the same team, Utah. However, the Pac-12 was better than the Big Ten this season. The Big Ten was really bad outside of its top three teams, and Ohio State beat only one of the two, Penn State.
If it’s USC, Alabama, and Ohio State, the obvious advantage Ohio State has is that it owns only one loss, while USC and Alabama would have two.
However, that advantage is countered by the fact that Ohio State got blown out at home. USC and Alabama would have very close losses to good teams, all of them away from home.
USC did not play Oregon this year, but it did play Oregon State. That win in Corvallis looks better. USC’s wins over Stanford and Cal don’t look good on the resume, but Ohio State has wins over Rutgers and Indiana — that’s worse than USC.
USC’s Fresno State win looks better since the Bulldogs reached the Mountain West Championship Game.
It’s not an easy call to make in terms of actual merit. The Big Ten being spectacularly bad makes it justifiable (debatable, but justifiable) to elevate either USC or Bama, if not both, above Ohio State, despite the Buckeyes having one fewer loss.
WHAT ABOUT TENNESSEE?
Some might say that Tennessee, due to its wins over Alabama and LSU, might still have a tiny outside shot. Maybe … but losing by 25 to South Carolina late in the season is such a “not ready for prime time” crash-and-burn moment that it’s hard to see the Vols getting the nod over Alabama in terms of SEC contenders for a playoff spot.
USC versus Tennessee? The Vols would have the better wins, but they would also have an ugly blowout loss, and they failed to make their conference championship game.
Tennessee fans would note, reasonably enough, that the South Carolina loss doesn’t look as bad after the Gamecocks won at Clemson.
WHAT ABOUT CLEMSON?
The ACC was bad this year. Clemson got crushed by Notre Dame, a team USC handled by 11 points. Clemson really has no case to make. Tennessee and Alabama definitely have better arguments. The Tigers will go to the Orange Bowl if they beat North Carolina, and that’s it.
BOTTOM LINE
USC just needs to win the darn Pac-12 title game and spare us these scenarios connected to a Trojan loss. That would make life a lot happier and less complicated. Just win, baby. Vegas, baby. Get revenge on the Utes.
