USC bowl choices are great; Trojans go to New Year’s Six after win over Notre Dame
Yes, of course USC fans want the College Football Playoff, which is now one win away for the Trojans. Who wouldn’t want to make the playoff and rise to the top tier of the sport? However, let’s say USC loses to Utah in Friday’s Pac-12 Championship Game. We don’t want it to happen, but let’s say that it does.
Even if that worst-case scenario unfolds, USC has secured a really good bowl destination. The worst the Trojans can do now, as a result of their win over Notre Dame on Saturday night, is the Cotton Bowl, which is a New Year’s Six landing spot.
As we enter the world of bowl projections — which are now much easier to make, given that everyone’s regular season is over except for the small number of teams playing in conference championship games — let’s flesh out the scenarios so that you’re aware of them:
USC WIN OVER UTAH = PLAYOFF
It’s that simple: Win and in. If USC wins against Utah this Friday, USC makes the College Football Playoff. There is now zero debate after LSU, Ohio State and Clemson all lost. There is now zero chance USC can miss the playoff in the event of a win and a Pac-12 championship with a 12-1 record.
USC WIN AND TCU LOSS = FIESTA BOWL, LIKELY VS MICHIGAN
If USC beats Utah and TCU loses to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game, the path will be clear for a Fiesta Bowl bid for the Trojans.
USC is currently No. 4, slotted for the Peach Bowl playoff semifinal against Georgia. TCU losing is what USC needs to move up to No. 3 and face No. 2 Michigan.
This is obviously USC’s dream scenario, not having to play what is essentially a road game against Georgia in the semifinals.
USC WIN AND MICHIGAN LOSS = FIESTA BOWL VS TCU
Yes, Michigan is a massive favorite against Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game, so it’s not likely at all that we’ll get this scenario, but let’s say the unthinkable happens.
USC could face TCU, assuming the Frogs win the Big 12 Championship Game. This would put Lincoln Riley against younger brother Garrett Riley, TCU’s offensive coordinator. What a scenario that would be.
LSU WIN OVER GEORGIA PLUS USC WIN OVER UTAH
What the heck happens if LSU does beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game? Highly unlikely, yes, but let’s make sure you’re prepared for it just in case.
This could get messy.
Georgia would have one loss but would still make the playoff with USC, Michigan and TCU, assuming they all win.
Who goes where, however?
Michigan would be the No. 1 seed as the highest-seeded unbeaten team, ahead of TCU. For that reason, Michigan would not face Georgia. It would be a punishment for Michigan to play Georgia despite being the top seed. Also, given that Michigan played Georgia in last year’s semifinals, ESPN would want to make sure Michigan and Georgia are in opposite halves of the bracket.
This is not an easy call, but I would lean toward saying that the semifinals would be Michigan-USC and TCU-Georgia. Would the committee punish Georgia by sending Georgia to the Fiesta Bowl, and forcing USC to go to the Peach Bowl to play Michigan? It’s possible, but I think Georgia probably stays home to avoid the logistical headache, and I think sending Michigan to Arizona would not offend or insult the Wolverines. TCU might have a gripe about having to go to Atlanta, but someone will get the short straw here if LSU does upset Georgia.
TCU LOSS TO KANSAS STATE: ALABAMA COULD GET INTO THE PLAYOFF
If TCU does lose, let’s briefly not even consider what happens to USC. We mentioned above that a TCU loss and a USC win put USC in the Fiesta Bowl. That much is clear.
Here’s the other part of a TCU loss which would make non-SEC fans irate: Alabama really could get into the playoff.
It seemed impossible, but now it’s very possible.
Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, and Oregon all lost on Saturday. That’s four of the top nine teams in the College Football Playoff rankings. All those teams losing eliminates several Alabama competitors for a playoff spot. Ohio State might have only one loss, but OSU lost by 22 at home. Alabama’s two losses are road games against LSU and Tennessee, and Ohio State played in a very weak Big Ten. The argument certainly exists that Alabama is a stronger team with a stronger schedule than Ohio State. It’s entirely possible that a TCU loss opens the door for Alabama to play Georgia in a playoff semifinal in the Peach Bowl, while USC and Michigan go to the Fiesta Bowl. We’re not saying it’s likely, but we are saying it’s possible, and you need to consider it.
CHAOS SCENARIO -- WHAT IF ALL THE TOP TEAMS LOSE?
This past Saturday featured four losses among the top nine teams. What if next weekend involves losses by USC, TCU and Michigan?
Oh, boy. What a trainwreck that would be.
Georgia would be in the Peach Bowl as the top seed. Michigan would likely stay in the playoff because of the TCU and USC losses below the Wolverines.
Then it gets really interesting.
Would Ohio State and Alabama both get in? It’s possible. Would USC be eliminated? Very possibly, but it’s not a guarantee with TCU losing and Alabama having two losses.
We can say that this scenario puts Ohio State in play for a possible Peach Bowl versus Georgia, but it’s the ultimate grab bag “who knows what to do?” scenario out of all of them.
NEW YEAR'S SIX SCENARIO NO. 1: USC BEATS UTAH
Let’s deal with the New Year’s Six in addition to the playoff.
If USC beats Utah, the Trojans go to the playoff, which means the Pac-12 would get a second NY6 slot in the Rose Bowl.
Washington, having won the Apple Cup late Saturday against Washington State, is 10-2 and in line to go to Pasadena if USC beats Utah.
NEW YEAR'S SIX SCENARIO NO. 2: UTAH BEATS USC
We don’t want it to happen, but if it does, here’s how the bowl landscape changes: Assuming a loss to Utah does knock USC out of the playoff, the Trojans would play in the Cotton Bowl against the Tulane-UCF winner.
Utah would go back to the Rose Bowl, and it might be a rematch for the Utes against Ohio State.
NEW YEAR'S SIX SCENARIO NO. 3: KANSAS STATE BEATS TCU
Kansas State would go to the Sugar Bowl. TCU would either go to the Peach Bowl against Georgia if it stays in the playoff, or to the Cotton Bowl if it is excluded from the playoff. Alabama might make the playoff as well, which could mean TCU slides over to the Orange Bowl to face Clemson.
NEW YEAR'S SIX PROJECTIONS IF USC LOSES TO UTAH
It will probably look like this, assuming the other top teams win. If two or more of the top four teams lose, this obviously changes:
Peach (playoff semifinal): Georgia vs. Alabama
Fiesta (playoff semifinal): Michigan vs. TCU
Rose: Utah vs. Ohio State
Cotton: USC vs. Tulane or UCF (AAC Champion)
Sugar: Big 12 team TBA vs. Tennessee
Orange: Clemson vs. Penn State
NEW YEAR'S SIX PROJECTIONS IF USC BEATS UTAH
It will probably look like this, assuming the other top teams win. If two or more of the top four teams lose, this obviously changes:
Peach (playoff semifinal): Georgia vs. USC
Fiesta (playoff semifinal): Michigan vs. TCU
Rose: Washington vs. Ohio State
Cotton: Penn State vs. Tulane or UCF (AAC Champion)
Sugar: Big 12 team TBA vs. Alabama or Tennessee
Orange: Clemson vs. Alabama or Tennessee
BOTTOM LINE
USC is in the New Year’s Six
Expect chaos
Hope for calm and a win over Utah
