Can Vanderbilt baseball doom Tennessee's NCAA hopes? 5 storylines I'm watching

Vanderbilt baseball's rivalry series with Tennessee, once an afterthought, reached its apex in 2022 when a transcendent Vols team swept the Commodores in Nashville.

Coming into the season, this year's rematch in Knoxville was expected to earn top billing, with all three games on national TV and both squads in the preseason top 10. But once again, the series has lost some of its luster. Vanderbilt (29-7, 13-2 SEC) has returned to the top five with a two-game lead on the SEC East while Tennessee (23-13, 5-10) has struggled, getting swept twice and sitting tied for fifth in the division.

Both teams should have motivation in spades. The Commodores surely still have last season's embarrassment in their minds and Tennessee is coming off a sweep by Arkansas needing wins down the stretch.

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Is Tennessee in danger of missing a regional?

At 5-10 in the league, the Vols now need a strong finish to even make a regional. Their only wins over ranked teams this season were victories in the series finales over LSU and Florida after losing the first two games.

Tennessee likely needs to finish 8-7 for a chance at the postseason. That starts this weekend as a series win by Vanderbilt could deal a significant blow.

Tennessee's defensive struggles

Tennessee still leads the league in ERA but is just third in the league behind Vanderbilt and South Carolina in runs allowed per nine innings. That's mostly due to the Vols' defense.

Tennessee is 10th in the league with a .974 fielding percentage and has allowed 28 unearned runs this season, which is more than any other team in the SEC other than Mississippi State. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, is second in the league with a .981 fielding percentage and has allowed just nine unearned runs. The Vols have committed 31 errors in 36 games while the Commodores have committed 24 errors in 38 games.

The disparity between the two defenses shows in stolen bases, too. Vanderbilt leads the league by allowing opponents to be successful on just 69% of steal attempts, while Tennessee is last in the league at allowing 89% of steal attempts to be successful. The Commodores are second in the league in both stolen bases and steal attempts.

Can Vanderbilt crack Tennessee's rotation?

Tennessee's rotation last season was the best in the country with Chase Dollander, Chase Burns and Drew Beam. Vanderbilt couldn't hit any of them well last season, with Beam throwing a complete-game shutout to cap off the sweep.

All three are back on the team, though Burns pitched out of the bullpen in the series against Arkansas. Although the Vols' offense hasn't been what it was a year ago, the Commodores will still need to hit Dollander, Burns and Beam to win the series.

On the other hand, Vanderbilt's all left-handed rotation has had a strong season, but Hunter Owen missed the series against South Carolina and Carter Holton was ineffective for the first time all year. Tennessee counts five left-handed hitters among its nine leaders in plate appearances, so if Holton and Owen are healthy, it could cause the Vols problems.

Maui Ahuna's rollercoaster season

Tennessee landed one of the top transfers in the portal this offseason in shortstop Maui Ahuna. But Ahuna's season hasn't gone as planned from the start.

Ahuna missed time at the start of the season and Tony Vitello took a suspension due to an investigation into tampering due to allegations that Vitello and his staff induced Ahuna to enter the transfer portal. Ahuna has also relatively struggled at the plate this season, hitting .284, and has been banged up and missed three of Tennessee's last four games.

The Vols also brought in a few other transfers on the position side in third baseman Zane Denton and outfielder Griffin Merritt, but Vanderbilt's top transfer RJ Schreck has outperformed both in hitting this season with a .354 average.

Will theatrics be punished?

It's no secret that these two teams dislike each other, and the intensity could go up a notch this year after the controversy over Jordan Beck's illegal bat last season. Tennessee is known for its celebrations that have irked opponents, but Vanderbilt isn't a stranger to that either. The Commodores stomp on home plate after home runs and Matthew Polk celebrated a hit-by-pitch against the Gamecocks.

After Florida pitcher Brandon Neely was ejected and suspended last weekend for celebrating a strikeout, both teams may need to be careful not to catch the umpires' ire.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Vanderbilt baseball vs. Tennessee: Five storylines for rivalry series