Vanderbilt football vs. Florida: Scouting report, score prediction

Aria Gerson, Nashville Tennessean
·2 min read

Fresh off a win over Kentucky that ended a three-year SEC losing streak, Vanderbilt football has the opportunity to stay alive for bowl eligibility.

After being shut out by Florida (6-4, 3-4 SEC) last year, the Commodores (4-6, 1-5) now get a home game against a Gators team with a new coach and an up-and-down season on Saturday (11 a.m. CT, SEC Network).

Florida is coming off a blowout win over South Carolina. Its four losses are all to teams with winning records: Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU and Georgia.

Here's what to know about the matchup:

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Running QBs

The Gators' Anthony Richardson is one of the top running quarterbacks in the SEC. He's run for 588 yards this season, averaging 6.6 yards per rush. In the passing game, he's less consistent, completing 55% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions, but there, too, Richardson has the ability to make explosive plays.

It's a similar profile to Vanderbilt quarterback Mike Wright. Wright has not officially been named the starter for the game, but freshman AJ Swann remains questionable after suffering an injury against South Carolina. Even if Swann does return, the Commodores' defense should be familiar with a player of Richardson's type, having gone against Wright in practice.

Florida's boom or bust defense

Florida's defense has been a bit of a roller coaster. The Gators rank 107th in the country in stop rate — a measure of how often a drive ends in a punt, turnover or turnover on downs — and 104th in total defense. The overall numbers are a bit better; Florida is 86th nationwide in scoring defense and 69th in SP+ defense. That's because the Gators are exceptional at forcing turnovers. They're ninth nationwide in forced turnovers and seventh in turnover margin, with both those ranking first in the SEC.

If Florida can't get a turnover, though, it has a tough time getting stops. The Gators are last in the SEC in first downs allowed and third-down defense. That makes it imperative for Vanderbilt to hold onto the ball.

Weather forecast a factor?

Saturday's weather looks more befitting of a Big Ten game than an SEC one, with high temperatures projected to be in the mid-40s in Nashville. Though there is no rain or snow in the forecast, those conditions could be unfavorable to a Florida team that's much more accustomed to heat, and it could impact the crowd that shows up.

Score prediction

Florida 34, Vanderbilt 24: Vanderbilt can hang in this one for a while, but Florida ultimately pulls away thanks to its knack for explosive plays.

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on Twitter @aria_gerson.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Vanderbilt football: Score prediction, scouting report vs. Florida