How Vanderbilt might benefit from College Football Playoff expansion

The College Football Playoff is expanding to 12 teams in 2024, and SEC teams could be among the top beneficiaries when the format shifts to six automatic and six at-large bids.

Vanderbilt is still a ways from capitalizing on playoff expansion. Its more pressing goal is to get to a bowl in 2023 after finishing 5-7 in 2022. But the Commodores are the type of team that has never gotten close to the four-team playoff but might have more of a chance − albeit a small one − with 12.

Even if Vanderbilt can't make the expanded Playoff, some of its benefits could trickle down to the Commodores.

"The expansion of postseason opportunities is great for college football. It's great for the SEC. And as charter members of the SEC, it's great for Vanderbilt football," athletics director Candice Lee told The Tennessean. "Our focus is on continuing to build our program. We took steps this year and we have more progress to be made and that is our focus, but what's good for college football and the SEC is good for us."

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How many wins would it take to make the College Football Playoff?

The 12-team format consists of the six highest-ranked conference champions and the six highest-ranked non-champions chosen by the College Football Playoff committee.

In the four-team playoff era, since 2014, the SEC champion made the playoff every season, and in none of those years did the conference champion have more than one loss. The worst record for any conference champion that would have made an expanded playoff since 2014 was 10-3.

Looking through past years' playoff rankings gives an idea of the kind of performance it would take for an at-large bid. In five of the eight years of the four-team playoff (not including 2020, when teams played a reduced schedule because of the COVID-19 pandemic), every would-be at-large team had at least 10 wins, but multiple nine-win teams were ranked high enough in the other three years (2014, 2016 and 2018). In most seasons, the lowest selected at-large team would have been 11th in the CFP rankings, though it's possible for a team to be ranked as low as 12th if a Group of 5 conference champion was ranked in the top 10.

Thus, it's likely that with an expanded playoff, a Power Five team would need to shoot for nine regular-season wins and a ranking in the top 11 of the polls. While the CFP rankings did not exist prior to 2014, Vanderbilt has only finished ranked in the AP Poll twice in the past 50 years − No. 23 in 2012 and No. 24 in 2013. In both those years, the Commodores were not ranked going into bowl selection after eight-win regular seasons.

How much will strength of schedule matter?

In years when there are not 12 teams with 10 wins, a number of nine-win teams are likely to vie for the playoff spots. The committee tends to favor big wins and perhaps more importantly, a lack of blowout losses, especially to mediocre teams.

While strength of schedule less often comes into play with the current playoff, there's a possibility it could become more of a factor. That's what would benefit SEC teams with Texas and Oklahoma slated to join the league. A nine-win team that played an SEC schedule will likely have a better resume than a Pac-12, ACC or Big 12 team with the same record.

There's a lot of uncertainty, though. It's unclear how the league will be organized once Texas and Oklahoma join. The league is likely to eliminate divisions but whether it goes to nine conference games remains to be seen. The league could go to a scheduling model where a team has a handful of permanent opponents with the remainder of the teams rotating through, giving uneven schedule strength throughout the conference. Even in a future without divisions, Vanderbilt would still likely have to play Tennessee every year − making the path to nine wins harder, but offering a potential marquee win every season.

Trickle-down success

Vanderbilt would face an uphill battle making an expanded playoff, but benefits from expansion could trickle down to the Commodores and other SEC teams.

Currently, bowl revenue is distributed equally among SEC teams, and that revenue is maximized if a conference fills all of its bowl spots with the potential for extra if one or more teams makes the playoff. While that model could change with expansion, any SEC team in the playoff gives benefits to the entire conference. Under the new model, the SEC would be nearly guaranteed at least one spot, and the SEC could've earned as many as three at-large bids had the model been in place in 2018.

Having three, or potentially even four, SEC teams in the playoff would provide even more exposure for the conference. It's possible that the potential for 25% of the conference to make the playoff in any given year could boost recruiting efforts against ACC or Big 12 schools, even for Vanderbilt, though no one will know for sure until expansion rolls around.

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on Twitter @aria_gerson.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: How Vanderbilt might benefit from College Football Playoff expansion