Here’s what the Vegas odds say about the Kansas City Chiefs-L.A. Rams game Sunday

At last, on Nov. 27, we will get the matchup we should have gotten on Feb. 13.

But in name only.

The Chiefs are the Chiefs, still leading the AFC, but the L.A. Rams look nothing like the team that won a Super Bowl some 287 days ago. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp won’t play Sunday in Kansas City because of injuries, and other key cogs, like Von Miller, departed via free agency in the offseason.

So what we anticipated before the year as one of the Chiefs’ best games actually takes the crown as its most lopsided matchup.

On paper.

The Chiefs are 15 1/2-point favorites against the Rams, the largest line they have seen this season.

It’s rare for a spread to stretch more than two touchdowns, but the Rams are likely going to turn to third-string quarterback Bryce Perkins and put him behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league without their best offensive weapon. That bodes well for the Chiefs, who have 18 sacks in the past four games.

Simply put: With that quarterback and o-line combination, I’m having a difficult time figuring out how the Rams will move the football.

It’s a really large line, almost begging you to take the points, but the Rams are league’s worst team against the spread this season at 2-7-1.

I don’t think they improve that record here. Even if the defense is more formidable, they’re still below average where the Chiefs are best: the pass.

The line: Chiefs -15.5

The pick: Chiefs 33, Rams 9

Last week’s pick: Chiefs -5

My record against the spread this year: 6-4

PLUS THREE

1. Isiah Pacheco, under 56.5 rushing yards

The timing of this one might surprise you, with Pacheco coming off his first career 100-yard game last week in Los Angeles and Clyde Edwards-Helaire out with a high ankle sprain. But the Chargers had the league’s worst run defense in terms of yards per carry, and the Rams rank fourth in that same category. It will be tougher sledding, in other words, and I don’t anticipate Edwards-Helaire’s absence to suddenly prompt the Chiefs to treat Pacheco like a workhorse running back. He still has pretty glaring weaknesses in pass protection. It’s therefore still a rotation with Jerick McKinnon, and expect Ronald Jones to see some time.

2. Patrick Mahomes, over 284.5 pass yards

Conversely, the Rams have been only average in pass coverage, and the Chiefs won’t be hesitant to throw it as many times as they feel fit.

Mahomes has thrown for 329, 331, 446, 423, 338 and 292 yards over the past six weeks.

The potential for a blowout (and early exit) is a worry, but perhaps the only one.

3. Rams, under 12.5 points

The reasoning is above. No quarterback. No star receiver. And the Rams struggled even when those guys were healthy. The offensive line is among the worst in football. The running game is non-existent, too. This should be an opportunity for an improving Chiefs defense to feast.

Prop bet record last week: 3-0

Prop bet record this season: 15-13