Venezuela Banned Opposition Contender Machado Leads Primaries

Andreina Itriago Acosta
·2 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Venezuela’s banned presidential hopeful María Corina Machado is leading by a large margin a pack of 14 opposition contenders vying to run against the ruling party’s candidate, widely expected to be President Nicolás Maduro, in next year’s election.

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Around 68% of Venezuelans with a high probability of voting in the Oct. 22 primary election organized by the opposition would pick her, Felix Seijas, a director at Delphos polling firm, said on Thursday. Citing his most recent survey, he added that roughly 11% would choose former Miranda state Governor Henrique Capriles, who comes second after twice running for president.

Machado has been rising in opinion polls over the past couple of months and likely got an additional boost when Venezuela’s government said last week she was barred from running for public office until 2030.

Her ascent coincides with the fall of opposition leader Juan Guaido, who had been recognized by the US and dozens of allied nations as Venezuela’s rightful president in a failed strategy to oust Maduro.

“Machado has been gaining a bit of that halo of being the person who can represent real change,” Seijas said at an event in Caracas, adding that the opposition coalition once known as MUD is losing its appeal among voters. “That’s what’s making her rise in the polls.”

Machado can grow even more and has a higher ceiling than Capriles, Seijas said. She also stands to gain most of the votes from comedian Benjamin Rausseo, who was also well positioned in the polls but decided not to run in the last minute.

Yet, there’s still a long way to go, he added. Among the key questions is whether Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales will join the race and how potential alliances will shape up.

Machado’s ban from running in the election, far from discouraging voters, is likely to engage more Venezuelans in the electoral process. More than 67% of the population is currently willing to participate in the primary, compared with nearly 46% in November, according to Seijas. Around 8% has a high probability of voting.

The decision by the Maduro government was criticized by the US and many other countries who said it undermines Caracas’ commitment to free and fair elections.

Delphos’ most recent survey was carried out between June 19 and 26, with 1,200 nationwide interviews.

--With assistance from Fabiola Zerpa.

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