Veteran MLB scout assess Marlins’ prospects. And where this Marlins season ranks all time
So what exactly do the Miami Marlins have in the upper levels of their minor-league system?
A veteran, respected National League scout who watched a bunch of Double A Pensacola’s games said one thing is obvious to him:
Aside from first baseman Lewin Diaz, outfielder Jesus Sanchez and second baseman/shortstop Jazz Chisholm, “they have no everyday players in their system, not that I’ve seen,” said the scout, who isn’t authorized to speak on the record about other teams.
“But they have enough pitching to trade for big-league regulars. They need to trade some of that pitching to get some guys that can hit.”
The scout assessed several of the players he evaluated at Pensacola:
POSITION PLAYERS
▪ Outfielder JJ Bleday (.212, .323 on-base average, second in Southern League in walks with 64, 12 homers, 54 RBI in 110 games at Pensacola): “They should be concerned. He’s got holes in his swing. He got better toward the end of the year, but he’s not a center fielder defensively - certainly not in their [big-league] ballpark - and has a ways to go with the bat.
“When you hit .200 in a small ballpark, you’re not close to being big-league ready. And Pensacola has a small park... I would make him repeat this league for a half year next year. I wouldn’t expect much moving forward. They put too much stock in his one really good year at Vanderbilt.”
▪ Outfielder Peyton Burdick (.231, .376 on-base average, 23 homers, 52 RBI in 106 games at Pensacola): “He’s better offensively and defensively than Bleday. I like the way he goes about his business. Plays hard and can play center much better than Bleday. And he can play both corner spots, too. He strikes out too much [135 in 460 plate appearances], but he led the league in walks [76] and his on-base percentage is good.
“If he cuts down on strikeouts, which is doubtful, he could be a big-league regular. He’s probably a fourth outfielder or platoon guy. He’s an aggressive base runner, sometimes a stupid base runner. But I would rather have a guy I have to calm down than speed up.”
▪ Outfielder Victor Victor Mesa (hit .093, 7 for 75 at Pensacola): “He has no big league potential at all to me. Totally overmatched at this level.”
He was demoted to High A Beloit (Wisconsin) in early July after the awful start at Pensacola and hit .306, with four homers and 25 RBI and 11 steals in 12 attempts in 52 games.
▪ Outfielder Griffin Conine (.176, 13 homers, 25 RBI in 42 games with 82 strikeouts and 12 walks in 173 plate appearances at Pensacola): “He’s an [expletive] media dream because he hits home runs, but he’s just a bad hitter. I gave him the benefit of the doubt because of the power aspect. But he swings at so much [expletive]. He was on pace for 200 strikeouts in this league, and the pitching is only going to get tougher from here.”
Before his promotion to Double A, Conine hit .247 with 23 homers and 59 RBI in 66 games at High A Beloit, but with 103 strikeouts in 288 plate appearances.
▪ On players he has seen before this season: “I like Lewin Diaz a lot. Really good defender, will be a doubles-type hitter. I think he’s going to hit… Jesus Sanchez has a very high ceiling, as everybody is seeing now… Jose Devers [injured much of the year] looks like the bat boy; he’s not an everyday player in the big leagues.”
PITCHERS
▪ Max Meyer (6-3, 2.41, 84 hits, 40 walks and 113 strikeouts in 101 innings in Pensacola): “He’s a bullpen guy for me because I don’t think he will hold up physically as a starter. He’s a small-frame guy, and this [Double A Southern] League is a swing-and-miss league, and he throws a lot of sliders out of the strike zone that hitters swing at.
“If he keeps throwing that many sliders, he probably will be a Tommy John [surgery] guy. The slider is his pitch. His fastball was 94-97 in the first four innings, then would drop to the low 90s in his starts I did. He tried to develop a changeup but really doesn’t have a third pitch.
“He could be a setup guy initially [in the big leagues], maybe a closer eventually. Don’t get me wrong: I like the kid, but I think he projects as a bullpen guy” because of his size (6-0, 196 pounds) and reliance on a slider.
The Marlins see him as a starter, and he had a very good first season.
▪ Jake Eder, who had a 1.77 ERA in 15 starts at Pensacola (43 hits, 27 walks and 113 strikeouts in 71 innings) before Tommy John surgery that will sideline him in 2022: “He was the steal of the [2020] draft. They did a fabulous job with him.
“Everything impressed me before the injury: his size, competitiveness, his stuff. He was effective even when he didn’t have good stuff. Just an unbelievable fourth-round pick. If he comes back strong from the Tommy John, he’s got a real chance to be a No. 3 starter for them.”
▪ Edward Cabrera (0-3, 5.79 ERA in six starts with the big-league team): “Big stuff. He’s a big-league starter.”
▪ Kyle Nicolas (3-2, 2.52 in eight starts for Pensacola; 50 strikeouts in 39 innings): “I love him. He reminds me of [former Braves pitcher] Kevin Milwood. He could be a top-half-of-the-rotation guy. He’s got size, velocity, a slider, got the full package.”
▪ Zach McCambley (1-6, 5.18 in nine starts for Pensacola after promotion from Beloit; 47 strikeouts in 40 innings): “He’s OK, but he ain’t Nicolas or Eder.”
ALCANTARA OPTIMISM
There’s growing optimism — with both sides - that the Marlins and Sandy Alcantara will be able to agree to a multiyear contract. Discussions have been ongoing. Alcantara — who has a 3.09 ERA in 32 starts -- isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2024 season.
WHERE THIS SEASON STACKS UP
How we rank the worst five seasons in Marlins history, with this nearly completed one making the cut:
1. 1998 team: 54-108
The Marlins’ 1997 World Series celebration didn’t last long. Shortly after, owner H. Wayne Huizenga conducted the franchise’ first “fire sale” by jettisoning Moises Alou, Devon White, Robb Nen, Kevin Brown, Al Leiter and even Mr. Marlin Jeff Conine.
After winning against the Cubs on opening day, the Marlins lost 11 in a row. Just more than a month later, Florida traded Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla and Charles Johnson and acquired Dodgers catcher Mike Piazza, who they then flipped to the Mets several days later. Cliff Floyd and Derrek Lee were two rare bright spots. The 1998 season ranks first on our list because the Marlins posted their worst won/loss record in franchise history.
2. 2012 team: 69-93
To generate excitement to coincide with the opening of Marlins Park, owner Jeffrey Loria went on a massive spending spree, adding Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell. Young outfielder Giancarlo Stanton was about to become a star. Things went downhill quickly.
Manager Ozzie Guillen made controversial comments regarding Fidel Castro and was suspended by the team for five games in April. Bell imploded as the team’s new closer, ex-National League batting champion Hanley Ramirez regressed, and the season was regrettably documented on Showtime’s ill-fated “The Franchise,” which had one episode focus on the players’ wives watching a Marlins game at a restaurant while eating sushi. That offseason, Loria traded Reyes, Buehrle and ace Josh Johnson.
3. 2013 team: 62-100
The Marlins did not fare any better in 2013 after dismantling much of the 2012 team.
Guillen was fired, and former Marlins catcher Mike Redmond was hired to navigate what appeared to be another rebuild. Miami finished at the bottom of virtually every statistical offensive category. Stanton was limited to just 116 games, and Justin Ruggiano was the only other player on the roster with double-digit home runs. After climbing to 12th among 16 National League teams in attendance in the first year of the new ballpark, the Marlins slid to last in that category in 2013.
The only positive: Jose Fernandez made the All-Star Team and won National League Rookie of the Year. He won 12 of Miami’s 62 games that season.
4. 2015 team: 71-91
The 2015 Marlins looked initially like they had the recipe for success: a young, talented outfield of Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna; a promising young catcher in J.T. Realmuto, and veteran pickups Michael Morse, Mat Latos, Dee Gordon and Ichiro Suzuki.
But the Marlins fired Redmond after 38 games and promoted GM Dan Jennings to manager, which shocked baseball people. Infielder Jeff Baker reportedly handed out clown noses to teammates to express displeasure with Jennings’ hiring. Baker was released on July 31 and never played another game in the big leagues. Stanton missed most of the season with injuries and Ozuna was demoted in an apparent attempt to limit his service time.
5. 2021 Miami Marlins: 64-91 entering final week.
The 2019 Marlins lost 105 games in the second year of the Bruce Sherman-Derek Jeter ownership regime, but there was never a real sense that team was poised to compete. But this season is a different story, because the Marlins were coming off a playoff berth in the COVID-shortened 2020 season and expected to be competitive. That’s why 2021 comes in fifth on this list, because far more was expected.
The Marlins couldn’t consistently score runs; got nothing from new closer Anthony Bass; traded Adam Duvall (second in the NL in home runs) for a catcher who strikes out more than half of his at-bats (Alex Jackson); failed to strike a longterm deal with Starling Marte and traded him for a pitching project with a 6.92 ERA (Jesus Luzardo); and saw its pitching staff beset by injuries (Pablo Lopez, Sixto Sanchez, Elieser Hernandez and others).
The Marlins ended up ranking at the top of two ignominious categories: errors and runners picked off.
Please follow Barry Jackson on Twitter at @flasportsbuzz and Craig Mish on Twitter at @CraigMish.
