Veteran MLB scout assesses Miami Marlins players, outlook

A veteran big league scout, who has been doing this for more than two decades and is respected in the industry, was back at his Grapefruit League home base last week when a reporter called and the topic quickly turned to the Marlins.

The expletives then started flowing.

As a caveat, it’s important to note that the scout works for a team that isn’t in the National League East and said he would like to see baseball succeed here. He has friendly relationships with several members of the organization. But he doesn’t have a good feeling about this team, even after several significant offseason changes.

Though definitive conclusions cannot be made simply off the dismal offensive numbers this spring (last in runs, by a large margin), he’s not optimistic entering Thursday’s opener against the Mets.

“I think they’re going to lose 90 games, because they can’t [expletive] hit and they have guys playing out of position and they’re going to be below average defensively and because they’re playing in a hell of a division. Their rotation is pretty good, but they’re going to miss [Pablo] Lopez’s reliability.

“Some of their pitching could be exceptional - Sandy [Alcantara] obviously is - but the problem is they have to be pristine every day to have a chance in that division.”

The scout, who has usually been on target with his evaluations over the years, offered thoughts on the Marlins - on condition of anonymity - after scouting them this spring and last year. Some of his feedback:

▪ On Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia: He’s pessimistic that they’ll turn it around in their second season here. The view offered was that Garcia no longer makes enough hard contact and pulls too many pitches. His decline puzzles the scout. “Not a fan,” he said.

With Soler, “he’s always been an all or nothing guy, an [expletive] defender. If he’s on the right team, hitting seventh, with guys around him, he can be great, at times, like he was in Atlanta. But when you depend on him to be the main guy, he hasn’t been able to perform. He doesn’t have the right guys around him.”

▪ On Luis Arraez, the 2022 American League batting champ who was acquired for Pablo Lopez: “Obviously, he can hit. Good plate discipline. But if he gets a lot of hits and nobody else gets on base and they can’t drive him in, what good will it do? I don’t know who will get on base consistently besides Arraez.

“Why would the Twins trade him? I know they needed pitching, but he didn’t make enough impact [to make him untouchable]. Not a good defender at second base.”

In other words, a very good hitter, but the scout cautioned against overstating his impact in wins and losses.

▪ On Jazz Chisholm, who moved from second base to center field: “I like Jazz. The power will continue [to evolve]. But defensively, he looks like a second baseman trying to play center.”

He appreciates Chisholm’s willingness to do it, and believes he maybe can become adequate over time there. But at this point, “the instincts aren’t there. It’s different from spring to doing it every single day in the big leagues. Is he athletic enough to do it? Sure. But how he’s going to play this year, there are going to be [mess ups]. And there is no room for error for this team.”

▪On outfielder Jesus Sanchez: “I’ve always liked the tools, but it seems he has hit a plateau. Like a lot of prospects, he’s not as good as we all thought. He couldn’t play on a good team unless he improves. But he’s out of options and I wouldn’t give up on him; there is power there and he hit pretty well this spring.”

▪On Bryan De La Cruz, who could share left field with Sanchez: “Inconsistent. Maybe a fourth or fifth outfielder.”

▪ On third baseman Jean Segura; “He’s on the tail end of his career. We had him before; he’s great when things are going good, [complains] sometimes when they aren’t. He’s going to catch a ball hit to him, but I wouldn’t play him at third. I don’t think he has the range.”

▪ On shortstop Joey Wendle: “There’s nobody in baseball that thinks he’s an everyday shortstop. We think he’s a utility, role type guy who shouldn’t play every day.. I think Jose Iglesias has something left - he’s still a pretty good defender.” But Iglesias didn’t make the 26-man roster and will begin the season in the minors.

▪ On outfield prospect Peyton Burdick, who’s headed to Triple A: “He’s a swing and miss guy, too many strikeouts. I love the way he plays, but he has to show more ability to make contact. He’s a fifth outfielder at best, and he doesn’t have the swing to be a bench player who doesn’t play a lot.”

▪ On the catchers: “[Jacob] Stallings was brutal last year; he can’t hit good stuff. He’s a backup catcher to me. [Nick] Fortes can hit a fastball; first pitch fastball, he will ambush it. I saw him a lot last year. Overachiever, a grinder, the perfect backup guy. He can throw but he’s not real accurate; he has gotten a little better in that regard.”

▪ On left-hander Jesus Luzardo: “Big fan of his; he was throwing 93 to 97 the other night. Easy delivery, sometimes you’re thinking, ‘Wow this guy could be a No. 1 [starter].’ He’s probably a three or four. He’s got number one type stuff. Consistency is the issue; he definitely improved with that last year.”

▪ On Edward Cabrera: “I worry about his health. He was very good when I saw him [this spring]. But he’s missed a lot of time in his career, and that can often be a [harbinger]. Plus stuff, plus slider, plus velocity when healthy.”

▪ On Braxton Garrett: “Back of rotation type of guy. I know he struggled this spring, but I actually think he can be a middle rotation guy down the road. He’s got above average stuff [even after the Tommy John surgery that sidelined him in 2018]. When his command is scattered, he’s very hittable.”

▪ On Eury Perez: “He has a chance to be a top of the rotation guy in time. The stuff, the way he goes about his business is impressive.”

▪ On the bullpen: “It’s adequate. AJ Puk was up to 97 [mph] the other night. He can be effective. Dylan Floro is a soft toss type guy, but he’s a veteran and knows how to get people out. Maybe they can get something out of [Matt] Barnes.

“I like Andrew Nardi; he’s a typical lefty where they don’t get good until later in their careers, so you need to be patient with him. [Huascar] Brazoban throws hard.”