Virginia coronavirus updates: Officials worry about new peak with winter weather

Hampton Roads' experience with the public health crisis was divided last week, with the Southside on a downward or flattening path and areas north in slow growth mode.

Only Chesapeake bucked the trend with signs that its COVID-19 trajectory was on the rise. Even Western Tidewater, which previously had elevated numbers because of large outbreaks, was dropping from a recent peak.

While statewide spread seems to have stabilized, infectious disease analysts are keeping a close eye on Virginia’s reproduction rate, which in most regions is showing each infected person is passing the coronavirus to more than one other person.

Public health officials worry winter could bring an outsized impact on the pandemic. If holiday travel and colder weather lead to a jump in new infections, cases could peak in January, according to a new analysis by The University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute. The center is partnering with the health department to offer data-based COVID-19 projections.

But health experts caution these predictions are always changing with new information, and slight differences in people’s behavior could alter the course of the pandemic. If Virginians improve their prevention efforts — washing their hands, distancing 6 feet or more from other people and wearing masks — cases could come to a head earlier and at a lower level.

As of Friday, there had been 160,000 confirmed cases in Virginia and 3,539 deaths. Over the previous week, nasal swab tests have come back positive at a rate of 5%, which ticked up from 4.8%. About 2.5 million tests have been given statewide.

Virginia officials announced Friday the state had received $22 million in federal aid to prepare its vaccination plan through December. But the Virginia Department of Health estimates the program will cost about $120 million.

The state also received $3 million to pass on to free and charitable clinics for COVID-19 expenses, like personal protective equipment, sanitation measures, telehealth services and hiring new staff.

Free clinic operators say they’ve seen an increase in demand as more people lose their jobs and employer-based insurance coverage. The Virginia Association of Free and Charitable Clinics has estimated these facilities have incurred about $40,000 each in unexpected expenses because of the pandemic.

The United States' case tally rose to 8.4 million last week with 223,000 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. Worldwide 1.14 million have died of the virus, and there have been 41.8 million cases.

The statewide weekly incidence of the virus remained at 12 out of 100,000 people, same as one week earlier, according to Virginia public health officials, almost half the national incidence of 23.

The incidence rate is the frequency that a new illness occurs in a community over a period of time. That’s not to be confused with a measure of prevalence, the proportion of people who have an illness in a set time frame, regardless of when they first developed the infection.

In Hampton Roads, 21 people died last week, a 31% rise from the tally reported the previous week. Of those fatalities, five occurred in Portsmouth; four were in Norfolk; three each were in Chesapeake, Hampton and Isle of Wight; one each was in Franklin, James City County and Newport News.

During the past week, Virginia Beach had the most new cases, with another 249 confirmed positive, according to the state health department. Norfolk, with 137, and Chesapeake, with 131, also bore hefty caseloads in the region — not unexpected with respect to their population sizes.

But Franklin, a much less dense locality in Western Tidewater, continues to have a high rate of infection. Outpacing all others, the city had a daily new case rate of 42.8 per 100,000 people. By comparison, the major cities of Hampton Roads were experiencing rates less than 13 out of 100,000 over the same period.

Over the past week, the city had 24 new cases and a death because of COVID-19. Dr. Todd Wagner, director of the Western Tidewater Health District, has said new cases in Franklin are often being traced back to family and neighborhood get-togethers.

In other parts of the region:

Chesapeake’s seven-day daily case average was 19 on Friday, down from 23 a week ago.

Norfolk’s daily case average was eight, a nearly 56% decline from 18 a week ago.

Newport News reported 111 new cases for the week, with a seven-day daily average of 16 reported Friday, essentially flat from 17 a week ago.

In Portsmouth, 80 new cases were reported in the week. Portsmouth averaged 11 cases a day, up from eight a week ago.

Virginia Beach had a seven-day daily case average of 36, a step down from 38 the previous week.

Hampton had 61 new cases reported for the week. The city was averaging about nine cases a day, down from 11 cases a day a week earlier.

In James City County, 26 new cases were reported for the week. The average was four new cases a day, slightly up from three new cases a day.

York had 14 new cases. The locality averaged two new cases a day, a drop from five.

Suffolk had 48 new cases over the previous week. The city had about seven new cases a day, nearly flat from the previous average of eight.

Accomack, Gloucester, Mathews, Middlesex, Poquoson, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg and York reported no deaths for the week.

Elisha Sauers, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com, 757-222-3864

———

©2020 The Virginian-Pilot (Norfolk, Va.)

Visit The Virginian-Pilot (Norfolk, Va.) at pilotonline.com

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.