Virginia primaries have set the stage for a fall political battlefield: Here are key takeaways

The General Assembly’s primary elections are over, setting up the battle for political control of the statehouse in the fall.

“It’s hard to predict at this point,” said Alex Keena, assistant professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University. “But I think (the general election) will be a lot more competitive with a lot more interest and more attack ads than we’ve seen in a long time.”

With Republicans currently controlling the governor’s mansion and the House of Delegates, Keena said there’s plenty at stake.

“The (possibility of) Republicans having unified control will drive a lot more interest in this election,” he said. “And I think Democrats will be able to use the abortion issue to really motivate a lot of the electorate.”

This year’s primaries and general elections are the first for state lawmakers under new district boundaries. Keena said the primaries were “the first wave of bloodshed since redistricting” and turned out to be brutal for some incumbents.

“Actually, I guess it was probably the second wave because the first was really when a bunch of incumbents decided they wouldn’t even try to run because the deck was stacked against them,” he said. “Redistricting just completely changed everything.”

Five incumbent senators across the state lost to challengers. The shake ups included the ousting of far-right Republican Sen. Amanda Chase and Democrat Sens. Chap Petersen and George Barker.

In Hampton Roads, most residents didn’t appear invested in the primaries.

Across the region, Department of Elections data showed low turnout Tuesday. The highest in the region was 15% in Portsmouth in the Democratic primaries. For Republican primaries, Isle of Wight County saw 13% turnout, followed by 9% in Suffolk and Chesapeake.

Here are a few other takeaways from this year’s primaries.

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Big changes ahead for Senate committee

One of the most powerful committees in the General Assembly is about to undergo a major shakeup. The Senate Finance and Appropriations Committee, which leads the state’s budget negotiations, is headed by chair Janet Howell and co-chair Barker.

Howell, D-Fairfax, is not seeking reelection this year. And Barker, D-Alexandria, was defeated Tuesday by Stella Pekarsky.

Keena said the loss of a longtime legislator like Barker will have a notable impact on the committee.

“When you lose an incumbent like that, you lose the personal connections (they had) too,” he said. “There is a lot of tension between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate, but there is also a lot of trust between a person like Barker and his colleagues. They know him as a person and his style and how he governs and legislates.”

Keena said Howell’s departure could benefit Hampton Roads.

Sen. Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth, won her primary Tuesday and is favored to win in the Democrat-leaning District 18 in the general election. If reelected, Lucas will become the senior member of the committee and take on the role of chair.

“That is going to be huge for the Hampton Roads region,” Keena said. “At the end of the day, you do still have to pass the budget (with other legislators), but it’s still a very powerful position.”

The chair and co-chair of the committee — along with the chair of its counterpart in the House — largely work on the budget proposal behind closed doors with little input from other legislators. The other lawmakers only get to vote on the final proposal.

At that point, those who object to any provisions in the document have limited options. They would have to vote down the entire proposal to prevent any part from passing, and legislators are generally reluctant to hold up the budget.

Throughout her campaign against fellow incumbent Sen. Lionell Spruill, Lucas stressed that it would be advantageous for Hampton Roads to have a local legislator leading the committee because she could ensure the region’s needs weren’t overlooked. For years, the panel has been headed by Democrats from Northern Virginia.

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Controversial Democrat ousted

In one of Tuesday’s most watched races, Lashrecse Aird defeated Sen. Joe Morrissey in the Democratic primary for Senate District 13.

“It was in some ways surprising,” Keena said. “If you’ve been following Virginia politics for awhile, you tend to think he’s invincible because he keeps coming back and seems to be immune to scandal.”

The professor said Aird’s victory likely will help with party unity moving forward.

In a news release earlier this year, the Virginia Senate Democratic Women’s Caucus slammed Morrissey for “divisive and destructive” public behavior and alleged he used his potential votes on abortion as a “cudgel against fellow caucus members.”

Morrissey, D-Richmond, has shared his personal opposition to abortion, which has long led to uncertainty about how he might vote on reproductive rights.

Morrissey also has survived numerous public scandals, including a stint in jail. The legislator was accused of having sex with his teenage secretary — the two later married and had children. He was convicted in 2014 of contributing to the delinquency of a minor. In 2022, he received a pardon from outgoing Gov. Ralph Northam. The couple are now separated.

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Governor’s endorsements held strong

Gov. Glenn Youngkin had a successful night Tuesday, with all 10 of the Republican candidates he endorsed winning their primaries.

Those who received his seal of approval: Bill Woolf in Senate District 30; Sen. Bryce Reeves in Senate District 28; Del. Tara Durant in Senate District 27; Del. Emily Brewer in Senate District 17; Del. John McGuire in Senate District 10; Mike Dillender in House District 84; Lee Peters in House District 65; Del. Buddy Fowler in House District 59; Del. Jason Ballard in House District 42 and John Stirrup in House District 21.

Dave Rexrode, chairman of the Spirit of Virginia, a political action committee formed by Youngkin, said their victories were a “clear sign of momentum.”

“The Governor was willing to engage both directly with those candidates and fund critical get-out-the-vote programs to ensure they were successful,” he said in a statement.

Brewer, of Smithfield, said she believed Younkin’s endorsement helped her. She defeated Hermie Sadler, a former NASCAR driver and political newcomer.

“The voters trust Governor Youngkin and have now placed that trust in me,” she said. “I look forward to working closely with Governor Youngkin to take back the Virginia Senate this year.”

All 140 seats in the statehouse are up for election.

Tuesday’s results, and the Republican candidates who earned nominations, were evidence of “a unified Republican Party,” Rexrode said.

“The Governor, along with House and Senate leadership, are all on the same page; we are working together to run a coordinated and unified campaign,” he wrote, contrasting that with infighting among Democrats during the primaries.

Republicans were not immune to drama in the aftermath of the primaries, however. Chase has said she’s considering a legal challenge after making unsubstantiated allegations of fraud while Del. Marie March, a Floyd County Republican who also lost her race, lashed out at Youngkin over his endorsements.

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Both parties eager to move on

On Wednesday, Democrat and Republican leaders were eager to focus on November.

“I think we have a very easy and strong case against the Republicans who are being led by former president Donald Trump and MAGA extremism,” House Minority Leader Don Scott said during a virtual news conference.

Scott, from Portsmouth, said Democrats would protect voting rights and reproductive health care. He slammed Republicans for supporting corporate tax cuts and working to ban books in schools.

Meanwhile, House Speaker Todd Gilbert said in a Wednesday news release Republicans were committed to improving education and making communities safer.

“(Democrats) refuse to hold violent criminals accountable, want higher taxes, and parents uninvolved in their children’s education,” he said. “The choice this November could not be more clear.”

Josh Janney contributed to this report.

Katie King, katie.king@virginiamedia.com