If Virginia Senate turns red, Gov. Youngkin could get ban on abortions in commonwealth

Jessica never expected a pregnancy that went awry.

The 35-year-old Richmond woman, who asked not to be identified by her last name out of safety concerns, told a Virginia Senate subcommittee this year she was stunned when a routine ultrasound during her second trimester detected severe abnormalities. She had an abortion because her baby would have been stillborn or died shortly after birth.

“The thought of watching someone struggle for life and having to watch them die was overwhelming,” said Jessica, who urged lawmakers to reject a bill that would have banned most abortions after 20 weeks.

“It would have made my experience, and all the people who have stories just like mine, so much more difficult.”

A Senate committee later killed the bill — but the debate over abortion restrictions in Virginia is heating up after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling last month.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin has said he will push to ban most abortions after 15 weeks. Some Republican legislators this week called for a total abortion ban, while the Democratic majority in the state Senate has vowed to knock down any legislation targeting abortions.

Political experts say the General Assembly is unlikely to push new abortion restrictions through the Senate during the next legislative session, but it might be coming in the not-so-distant future. And they caution it could have more far-reaching effects than some realize.

“I think there will be phenomenal, unpredictable and unintended consequences that come out of all this,” said Deirdre Condit, an associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University whose research focuses on women and politics.

Under current state law, abortions are allowed during the first and second trimester. They’re also allowed in the final three months of pregnancy if three physicians agree the pregnancy will lead to the patient’s death or “substantially and irremediably impair” her mental or physical health.

There were 15,689 reported abortions in Virginia in 2020, according to the Virginia Department of Health. All but 387 occurred before the 15-week mark. Preliminary data from 2021 has similar findings.

Condit believes the state Senate will slap down the governor’s proposal — for now. But all 40 state Senate seats are up for election in 2023.

“If enough Virginians return Republicans to a majority, then he’ll probably succeed — so we are in an interesting political moment in the state’s history,” she said.

In addition to limiting abortions, the professor warned that a 15-week ban could lead to confusion among medical practitioners.

The governor stated there would be exceptions if a mother’s life was at risk, but Condit said that is difficult to define. She also said doctors may refuse to perform abortions on women experiencing partial miscarriages or pregnancies in which the fertilized egg grows outside the uterus, out of concern for their own legal liability.

The ban would also change the training medical students could receive in Virginia, she said, and would add work for police and public prosecutors tasked with enforcing the new laws.

Benjamin Melusky, an assistant professor of political science at Old Dominion University, said bringing abortion to the forefront is a marked shift for Virginia.

“It hasn’t been a hot-button issue as much here as you see in some other states,” he said.

State legislators nationwide are looking to the November midterms to gauge the nation’s reaction to Roe, Melusky said.

If there’s a red wave, state-level Republicans nationwide could be emboldened to push for more restrictions in their own legislatures, and possibly sway some moderate Democrats to consider some compromises, he said.

On the other hand, if the fear of abortion restrictions costs Republicans at the polls, the GOP’s support for abortion bans would likely wane, Melusky said.

“I think all eyes are really looking at the midterms to see how impactful it is.”

In a Wednesday statement, State Senator Louise Lucas, chair of the Education and Health Committee, urged Virginians to pay attention to the coming elections.

“This coming election and the election in 2023 will decide the fate of abortion in Virginia,” said Lucas, a Democrat from Portsmouth. “Being angry is one thing, but we need to turn our anger into activism and ensure reproductive rights are protected.”

During Youngkin’s appearance Sunday on the CBS news show “Face the Nation,” the governor presented his proposal as a moderate compromise and appeared confident about his ability to push it through the legislature.

“I have a Senate that’s controlled by Democrats and a House that’s controlled by Republicans, we have to find a way to get things done,” he said.

Youngkin, who said he believes life begins at conception, said he supported exceptions for rape, incest or when the life of the mother was at high risk. He declined to answer whether he would ever seek to outlaw abortion completely.

Victoria Cobb, president of conservative lobbying group the Family Foundation of Virginia, believes the governor’s proposal struck a good balance.

“We absolutely share the passion of the people who are calling for a full ban immediately but we have the experience to understand that our legislators won’t move on that,” she told The Virginian-Pilot.

Jamie Lockhart, executive director of Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia, said it’s not an issue that has room for compromise.

“Let’s be clear, a ban is a ban,” she said. “Banning abortion after 15 weeks denies a person the fundamental right to control their own body and health care decisions.”

Forcing patients to remain pregnant could be dangerous, especially given the maternal health disparities in the United States, Lockhart said.

Among developed nations, the United States routinely ranks in the bottom for maternal health. Black women are at the highest risk, dying at about three times the rate of white women.

Other major state debates may be on the way.

In the ruling on Roe, Justice Clarence Thomas stated the court should reconsider all “substantive due process precedents,” including two that protect same-sex marriage and relationships.

Youngkin inaccurately stated Sunday that gay marriage was protected in Virginia. The state’s constitution has no such protections.

Virginia, and the nation, could look “very different” within the next few years, Condit said.

“The United States has been one of the leaders around the world since its founding in the notion of expanding freedoms and liberties and excluding government from trampling on citizen’s individual rights and liberties,” she said.

“This is now a moment in which the Supreme Court is signaling that the United States is going to lead in the exact opposite direction.”

Katie King, katie.king@virginiamedia.com