Coronavirus Helps Bury Controversy in the World’s First Pandemic Election

(Bloomberg) -- South Korea is the first major country to hold a general election in the throes of a coronavirus crisis. That may turn out to be a boost for its president, Moon Jae-in.

The election for all 300 National Assembly seats comes as Moon basks in the glow of global praise for South Korea’s approach to getting one of the world’s worst outbreaks under control without resorting to the most punitive measures. When early voting got underway Friday, the country reported 27 new coronavirus cases over the past 24 hours, the fewest in about seven weeks.

The easing Covid-19 tally has helped Moon’s Democratic Party of Korea rebuild support battered by an economic slowdown, corruption scandals involving presidential aides and resurgent tensions with North Korea. The turnaround is all the more remarkable because Moon had faced criticism for a lax approach after the epidemic began in neighboring China, having predicted that the virus would be terminated “before long” -- only to see cases spike days later.

“It looked like Moon’s party was headed for a complete defeat in the election amid a fragile economic recovery,” said Kim Man-heum, head of the Korea Academy of Politics and Leadership and the author of several books on Korean politics. “Then came the coronavirus outbreak, which swallowed up all other controversies like a black hole, leaving only the government’s out-performance in the worldwide Covid-19 war visible.”

The vote comes about halfway through Moon’s single, five-year term, a point when an electoral defeat made his predecessor, former President Park Geun-hye, a lame duck and ultimately paved the way for her impeachment and removal. While a win by the conservative United Future Party could open Moon to similar peril, victory by the Democratic Party would free his hand to set up a successor.

If Moon can win the election without contributing to a subsequent spike in infections, he may also provide a road map for other leaders seeking to navigate a period of unprecedented economic and social upheaval. Places from U.S. states to Singapore have been currently re-evaluating their political calendars and election practices as surging coronavirus outbreaks consume the public debate and make the democratic exercises of campaigning and voting dangerous.

How Kim Jong Un Keeps Advancing His Nuclear Program: QuickTake

In South Korea, candidates have campaigned in masks and relied more heavily on video messages to reach voters. People who visit the polls will be asked to stand at least one meter (3 feet) apart, cover their faces, wear disposable gloves and be ready to submit to temperature checks. Voting booths will be subject to frequent disinfection.

The decision to go ahead with voting contrasts with U.S. states that have delayed presidential primaries and France, which suspended some local elections after cases began to multiply. Singapore has held off on calling an expected vote as it orders people to stay in their homes to avoid spreading the disease. Poland plans to conduct its May 10 presidential election by mail-in ballot.

The timing of South Korea’s vote appears to be working in Moon’s favor. His focus on mass testing and isolation of the sick to corral coronavirus clusters has been credited with a sharp slowdown in infection increases. While South Korea once had the second-largest case tally outside China, it was the 17th globally as of Friday, with just over 10,000 cases, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News.

Moon was among the first people to cast ballots when two days of early voting started Friday. As of 10 a.m., 2.5% of the registered voters had gone to the polls, compared with 1.2% as of the same time on the first day in the previous general election four years ago, according to the national election committee. The turnout was the lowest in Daegu, South Korea’s epicenter for the virus spread.

A Gallup Korea poll released last week, before restrictions on publishing poll results took effect Thursday, showed that the Democratic Party was leading the opposition 41% to 23%. Still, the complexity of South Korea’s vote and a history of surprises like Park’s shock defeat in 2016 make predictions difficult.

More than 1,100 candidates from 21 political parties have signed up for 253 constituencies with direct elections. Another 300 candidates are fighting for 47 seats decided by support for the parties.

“The results are often a surprise because opinion polls fail to capture each candidate’s competitiveness,” said Kim, of the Korea Academy of Politics and Leadership.

Heavy Hitters

The coronavirus crisis has loomed large in a closely watched race in central Seoul, a political proving ground that has produced three future presidents and is sometimes called South Korea’s “No. 1 district.” The contest features two former prime ministers -- Lee Nak-yon, of the Democratic Party, and opposition leader Hwang Kyo-ahn -- in what could be a preview of the 2022 presidential election.

“Grabbing a victory here is like winning nationwide support,” said Hwang in a written reply to questions. “Only a landslide win would empower us to stop the ruling power’s policies.”

Hwang’s party is pushing to take a tough line with North Korea, scrap Moon’s decision to raise the minimum wage and cut back on regulations on business.

Lee declined to be interviewed. Beside pushing through a dramatic wage increase, Moon has tightened rules on urban redevelopment to rein in a property bubble and sought to wean the economy away from nuclear energy in favor of hydrogen and solar power.

The Democratic Party is predicting that it will win at least 130 seats, while the United Future Party forecasts that it will take between 110 and 130 seats, according to Yonhap.

However, surveys have shown about one out of five voters are undecided or unwilling to say whom they support. The threat of infection at polling station only adds to the uncertainty.

“It’s highly likely to be an extremely polarized election,” said Park Won-ho, who teaches voting behavior at Seoul National University. “Only those willing to pay for the cost of a possible infection will come to the polls, which will result in over-sampling” of voters on the extreme right and left, Park said.

(Updates with details on early voting)

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

Subscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.