Vivek Ramaswamy wants to ‘shock’ the system in January. Why these early voters think his timing isn't right

Vivek Ramaswamy, traveling around Iowa with key allies like conservative commentator Candace Owens and former Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, has one goal in January: To “shock the system” by emerging victorious in the nation’s first 2024 Republican caucus on Monday.

“Many people in this room didn’t know who I was six months ago,” Ramaswamy told reporters days after braving a major snowstorm in the Hawkeye State. “And so I think people have taken their time to really make their decision carefully. And I believe we're going to see a massive surprise on Monday at the Iowa Caucus.”

"I also want to say this with clarity,” he added. “We are in this to the very end. Period.”

But despite holding over 350 events in Iowa over the last year and making similar rounds in New Hampshire ahead of the state’s Jan. 23 primary, Ramaswamy is still lagging in national and state polls.

A Suffolk University survey released Thursday found only 6% of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa would support Ramaswamy, compared to 20% for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and 54% for former President Donald Trump.

Likewise, the businessman tallied 6% of support from likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a survey conducted by Saint Anselm College.

Though Ramaswamy has dismissed the polls and touted endorsements from New Hampshire Republicans, key early voters in both states told USA TODAY it just isn’t Ramaswamy’s time to run for president.

“I think that he would be better off in eight years,” said Brandt Kims, a 71-year-old retired military service member and Republican in Rochester, New Hampshire.

“He's so articulate, he reminds me of Obama. Ramaswamy is smart. He's intelligent. I respect that…But I think right now for me to make a choice today, it would be with Nikki Haley,” he added.

Voters see Ramaswamy as unseasoned, Trump 2.0

Ramaswamy, 38, fashions himself as a younger version of Trump and a political outsider on the campaign trail, saying he isn’t “bought and paid for” like his rivals.

The entrepreneur, who previously told USA TODAY his goal is to take the former president's "America First" agenda “even further than Trump did,” has called for firing more than ​​one million civil servants,  shutting down the FBI and IRS, ending birthright citizenship and passing a constitutional amendment to raise the voting age to 25.

But he’s had no success in replicating the magic of Trump’s 2016 campaign or courting the former president’s supporters to his side, experts said.

“Trump has become the central figure of the Republican Party, while still retaining his original brand ID so to speak, as the ultimate outsider,” said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire. “I think a lot of his supporters feel that his mission is not yet complete. It’s Trump or die for them. It's really difficult to unglue that kind of support.”

Iris Buzzell, 53, a Republican voter from Concord, New Hampshire, and a healthcare professional who supports Trump, said she sees Ramaswamy as a “copycat.”

“I've been seeing his signs up everywhere. And he's got the big words ‘Truth’ right across his signs,” Buzzell said. “And to me, I think that's kind of him trying to ride on Donald Trump's coattails.  I think my take is he’s looking to just be a cultural warrior instead of having his own ideas and his own initiatives as far as what he plans to do as president.”

For other Trump supporters, it’s the fact that Ramaswamy doesn’t have a political track record.

“Trump's proven it. He had four years. He should have had eight and we're gonna give him the other four,” said Chad Anderson, a 47-year-old Republican who works in the ventilation business in Van Meter, Iowa. “I'm not against Vivek. I think he's awesome, but the time’s not right for him.”

Kims, the Haley supporter, said he thinks Ramaswamy needs a “variety of experience” to earn his vote.

"I feel like he's really full of energy," Kims said. "He just hasn't met the nasty muck in the mud that he's gonna encounter. And I think he needs to get a taste of that."

Ramaswamy unable to form broad coalition

Ramaswamy’s also been unable to attract moderate and liberal-leaning independent voters to form a broad coalition of support like Haley. The Suffolk University poll found about 42% of voters from this group support Haley while only 7% support Ramaswamy.

His rhetoric may play a part in that. He has directly refused to condemn white supremacy, called Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Ohio, a “modern grand wizard of the modern KKK” and participated in discussions with far-right figures such as Andrew Tate and prolific conspiracy theorist Alex Jones.

He’s also embraced baseless conspiracy theories, including one that the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack was an inside job during the fourth GOP debate in Alabama − of which there is no evidence.

“Ramaswamy likely calculated that Republican voters are looking for a younger version of Trump and decided that it would be prudent for him to run that campaign,” said Jennifer Mercieca, a democracy expert at Texas A&M University. “In a way, that’s a good assessment: some Republicans are looking for a younger Trump, but running as ‘the younger Trump’ runs the risk of alienating the exact same voters who Trump alienates.”

Josh Chapman, a 40-year-old who works in biotech in Hollis, New Hampshire, said he doesn’t trust Ramaswamy.

“He’s spinning QAnon conspiracy theories because no one else will listen to him,” said Chapman, an undeclared voter who supports Haley. “He sounds like somebody who understands slices of the truth. Just doesn't have integrity.”

He added that the only difference between Ramaswamy and Trump is that “Trump has more charisma, or at least he has more humor about and so he gets away with it. Ramaswamy doesn't cater in the same way.”

While Joel Horn, a 45-year-old independent voter in West Des Moines, Iowa, said Ramaswamy has some “positive takes” involving foreign policy and other issues, he thought the Jan. 6 remarks Ramaswamy made were “immature.”

“I'm not a Democrat by any means, but these comments are made based on information that they're hearing but you can't just definitively make a statement," said Horn, a self-employed government contractor.

Horn added that Ramaswamy isn't "separating himself from Trump when he's going out there.”

Ramaswamy’s future in Republican primary is bleak

Numerous Republican analysts and experts say they don’t see a viable path for the businessman in this year’s election.

“I don't see him being a significant factor down the stretch,” said Jim Merrill, New Hampshire state director of The Bernstein Shur Group, a political campaign and consulting entity.

Scala said that if Ramaswamy supporters see New Hampshire as a two-person race between Trump and Haley, “a lot of them might gravitate toward Trump.”

There are signs the businessman’s campaign could gradually fold out. Ramaswamy has made clear that if Trump is off the 2024 presidential primary ballot in Colorado, Maine and other states, he would also take his name off – a move that could affect his already low numbers in the polls.

His campaign stopped all spending for TV ads in Iowa and New Hampshire and labeled it a “strategic move” to skip the Illinois primary on March 19.

Trump has also pressured Ramaswamy to drop out of the race after Ramaswamy posted a picture on X standing next to supporters with t-shirts that said “SAVE TRUMP, VOTE VIVEK” Saturday. The former president claimed in a Truth Social Post that all his challenger does is “disguise his support in the form of deceitful campaign tricks.”

“Vote for “TRUMP,” don’t waste your vote! Vivek is not MAGA,” Trump wrote.

In response, Ramaswamy praised Trump in a tweet on X, formerly Twitter, as the "best president of the 21st century” but claimed there is a "plot" hiding in plain sight to keep the former president from the White House and that "we owe it to our nation to take America-First forward."

"I saw President Trump’s Truth Social post. It’s an unfortunate move by his campaign advisors, I don’t think friendly fire is helpful," he wrote on X.

Ramaswamy, however, did sell $33 million in shares of Roivant Sciences, a biotechnology company he founded, earlier this month - of which a “significant portion” would be used for his campaign, his spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin told USA TODAY. It's also an indication the businessman won't be quitting anytime soon.

Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist who served as the Trump White House and campaign surrogate for the 2020 election, told USA TODAY that Ramaswamy’s exceeded expectations as a candidate who’s been able to make the debate stage despite voters not knowing his name when he first entered the race.

“He is a political neophyte who's learning and he has a bright future… (but) Trump is the gold standard on so many issues for the Republican base,” O’Connell said. “And it was always a Herculean task for anyone who entered that race.”

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ramaswamy wants to ‘shock’ in 2024. These voters say it's not his time