Volatility 101: Should CITIC Dameng Holdings (HKG:1091) Shares Have Dropped 44%?

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For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term CITIC Dameng Holdings Limited (HKG:1091) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 44% over a half decade. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 23% in the last year. Furthermore, it's down 13% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 7.3% in the same timeframe.

View our latest analysis for CITIC Dameng Holdings

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, CITIC Dameng Holdings moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.

In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 22% a year in the five year period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

SEHK:1091 Income Statement, July 30th 2019
SEHK:1091 Income Statement, July 30th 2019

Take a more thorough look at CITIC Dameng Holdings's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered CITIC Dameng Holdings's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. CITIC Dameng Holdings's TSR of was a loss of 43% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that CITIC Dameng Holdings shareholders are down 21% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 4.6%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 11% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Shareholders might want to examine this detailed historical graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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