Volatility 101: Should oOh!media (ASX:OML) Shares Have Dropped 23%?

oOh!media Limited (ASX:OML) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 11% in the last quarter. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. In fact, the share price is down 23% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.

View our latest analysis for oOh!media

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, oOh!media actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 8.2% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Revenue is actually up 16% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worht worth investigating oOh!media further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

The chart below shows how revenue and earnings have changed with time, (if you click on the chart you can see the actual values).

ASX:OML Income Statement, April 13th 2019
ASX:OML Income Statement, April 13th 2019

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling oOh!media stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for oOh!media the TSR over the last 3 years was -14%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

The last twelve months weren't great for oOh!media shares, which cost holders 16%, including dividends, while the market was up about 12%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Shareholders have lost 4.8% per year over the last three years, so the share price drop has become steeper, over the last year; a potential symptom of as yet unsolved challenges. We would be wary of buying into a company with unsolved problems, although some investors will buy into struggling stocks if they believe the price is sufficiently attractive. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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