Is voter turnout down because of 2024 presidential primary? Here’s what NC numbers show

In one of the least competitive presidential primaries in years, voter turnout is trending lower than in previous elections, particularly in Mecklenburg County.

Who turns out to vote in elections influences which candidates win races and who seizes control at the local, state and federal levels. Presidential races often drive participation higher than elections where they’re not on the ballot, but this year’s voter turnout trails 2016 and 2020.

Michael Dickerson, director of the Mecklenburg County Board of Elections, said previous presidential primaries in 2020 and 2016 featured 68,536 and 55,285 early votes, respectively.

As of Thursday, just 29,536 votes have been cast in the county during the early voting period, which ends Saturday, with an additional 855 voters sending in absentee ballots, according to Mecklenburg County Board of Elections figures.

Statewide, 5.2% of registered voters cast early voting or absentee ballots as of Feb. 28. The rate in 2020 for the same time period was slightly higher at 5.6%.

Fewer top-of-the-ballot choices in 2024 primaries

Dickerson anticipates turnout after Election Day will reach “about 25%” out of the county’s 780,000 eligible voters, which would be lower than state and local turnout in 2016 and 2020.

He said there “was a little more on the ballot” in 2020 — a North Carolina U.S. Senate primary that was heavily advertised in addition to a larger Democratic presidential primary pool that featured Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren along with Michael Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg.

This year, only Biden appears on the ballot for Democrats in N.C. After taking delegates in six states, Donald Trump is a big favorite in the GOP primary. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is his only serious challenger despite being a longshot to win the Republican presidential nomination.

“All these other folks were still in the race, and you had all these people telling you to go vote,” Dickerson said. “I would assume that is a big part of why it’s so slower now.”

But Colette Forrest, co-founder of the Charlotte Black Voter Project, provided an alternative theory for why voters may be a bit apathetic about voting in the presidential primaries.

The leader of the nonpartisan organization to increase voter participation said many prospective voters have become disillusioned with national politics and presidential candidates who they believe are out of touch with issues that impact them.

“They feel like politicians are part of the problem and don’t care about them,” Forrest said. “I do not know what to do.”

What would lower turnout mean?

Will lower turnout equate to an advantage for individual candidates or one of the political parties?

Not necessarily, says Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper.

“The short answer is that (low turnout) benefits neither party,” Cooper told The Charlotte Observer. “One of the biggest myths in American politics is that Democrats do better in higher turnout elections. The evidence simply does not support this view. Knowing who turns out can give us clues about who it benefits, but turnout rates do not consistently benefit one party or the other.”

The lower voter turnout, however, could make for more intriguing down-ballot races on Election Day, said Mecklenburg County Democratic Party Chairman Drew Kromer.

He says one race to watch if turnout stays low is the battle for District 105, where the winner in a Democratic field that includes Yolonda Holmes, Nicole Sidman, and Terry Lansdell will face Republican Rep. Tricia Cotham in November.

Another race Kromer said could be impacted by turnout is District 42, which encompasses a portion of Charlotte and Mint Hill where Republicans have the potential to pick up a seat vacated by Democrat Rachel Hunt.

“The stuff that is higher up on the ballot seems to drive turnout because that’s what people see and hear more often,” said Kromer. But ultimately, people still understand the value of going out and voting. There is so much on the ballot this year.”

Larry Shaheen, a Charlotte attorney and consultant to local and state Republicans, said it would be no surprise if there were more votes “in the governor’s race than for president,” especially among conservatives.

“The numbers show the enthusiasm is significant,” he said. “The most intense voters and most engaged voters are going to pick the side they want to represent their identified party. Voting is about who shows up and who gets to the polls and votes.”