Voters give Truss’s reforms a cautious welcome, but cost of living will be the true test

It was the most radical financial statement for decades. Now Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng will be hoping their tax cuts, economic reforms and freezing of energy bills help to reverse the cost of living crisis and the Conservatives’ fortunes.

This weekend, there were glimmers of hope for Downing Street in the early reactions of some of the voters who had initially spoken about their fears for the coming months in focus groups and interviews conducted for this newspaper before Ms Truss’s arrival in Downing Street.

The voters, from working class households, who backed the Conservatives in 2019 had spoken of the growing pressure of rising food and energy prices. In discussions led by Public First, an opinion research firm, several said that their choice at the next election would depend on Ms Truss’s handling of the cost of living crisis. 

Ben, from Gomersal, West Yorks, who works in IT and previously described himself as “anxious” over rising energy and food costs, said of Friday’s financial statement: “I feel like she’s just taking a big risk really. However, the outlook on the face of it seems positive.”

Ben said the Government’s plan to help with energy bills meant that his financial situation was “not as bad as it could have been”, and added that the planned cuts to National Insurance and income tax were welcome.

Leon, 56, a retired paramedic who told last month of how he had to take a part-time job delivering medicines, said, approvingly, that Ms Truss “seems to be taking a grip of things”.

He welcomed the plan to freeze energy bills and Friday’s tax cuts, even though he would stand to gain relatively little from the reduction in income tax and National Insurance.

However, Leon suggested that his friends would be likely to react badly to measures such as the lifting of the cap on bankers’ bonuses. 

“If I go into the pub tonight, they will say it’s all about the rich,” he said.

Kerrie, a school receptionist from Manchester, who had previously said she feared for her family’s ability to “break even” over the winter, said the energy support package announced by Ms Truss was “miles better” than expected and “will take away some of the panic”. Although “if you compare it to last year’s average winter bill, it’s still going to be like double that,” she added.

Overall, Kerrie said she would rate Ms Truss’s response as a “six or seven” out of 10, “because they are doing something, but I fear it’s short-term measures.”

Downing Street will hope these responses are replicated in many other households across the country. A poll conducted earlier this month, before the Government’s interventions, found that the Tories were losing ground among working class voters as the cost of living crisis hit took the poorest households.

The Public First survey for The Telegraph found that the proportion of working class respondents saying they would vote for Labour had risen by four points to 36 per cent in the last month, while support for the Conservatives dropped by four points to 20 per cent. At the same time, the number of voters putting blame on the Government for the crisis had increased since last month.

The poll of 1,005 voters conducted as Ms Truss replaced Boris Johnson found that, overall, support for Labour had remained at 32 per cent while the proportion of people saying they would vote for the Conservatives had dropped by just one percentage point, compared to a similar survey in August.

But, among voters falling into the C2 social grade - mainly skilled manual workers - the proportion of people planning to vote for Labour increased from 32 per cent to 35 per cent, while support for the Conservatives dropped seven points to 23 per cent.

Of those in the D and E social grades, including manual workers, state pensioners, casual workers and the unemployed, support for Labour rose four points to 37 per cent, while the Conservatives’ backing dropped one point to 18 per cent.

Ms Truss’s team will hope that the measures announced to date, combined with her planned programme of planning, childcare and farming reforms, can help to reverse that decline ahead of an election.

Highlighting the extent of price rises, Tracy, a housing officer from the West Midlands, said: “We’ve noticed that everything is literally just doubling. Even some of the low-cost things that you’d be able to get in the supermarkets, they’ve gone up by a lot.

“For a four-pint [bottle of] milk we used to pay something like £1.10. I went to get some yesterday and it’s gone up to £1.99.”

Tracy added: “At the moment, I think we’re just coping, we’re trying not to spend anything that we don’t have to spend.”

The rising costs of food and energy have wiped out Tracy’s household savings, she said, after her combined gas and electricity bills increased from £150 to £225 per month. “We always had a little, normally about £1,000, for a rainy day just in case. If the washing machine breaks or something we always try and make sure we’ve always got a minimum of that in but that’s gone.”

Ben said: “The price of food is ridiculous. [Our] disposable income is getting squeezed and squeezed and squeezed.” On a recent shopping trip, he noticed that a large packet of fish fingers now costs £7.50, up from £4, while the price of butter had “gone through the roof”. “I couldn’t believe it,” he said.

Kerrie, who is in her 30s, said her husband, a recruiter, had changed jobs “to try and get us a bit more money”. Leon has been buying products from Asda’s budget range, as well as buying groceries for only a two or three day period at a time to ensure “there’s no food wasted whatsoever”.

The rising cost of living was having significantly less of an effect on Michael, a better-off research specialist in his 30s who had not changed his view since taking part in a separate focus group of middle class voters last month. “Personally, my wife and I, we’re OK,” said Michael. “We’re certainly noticing it, absolutely noticing it. But we are fortunate enough that we can absorb it and not really alter our way of living.”

Natasha, a 30-year-old teacher from Reading, stood out in last month’s focus group of middle class voters as the only individual who already appeared to be personally struggling as a result of the rising cost of living. Last month she described having revoked “quite an expensive gym membership” to help cope with the cost of her bills and mortgage. Now, she has cancelled a paid subscription from a major online retailer, as well as ending membership of fresh food delivery services.

Both Leon and Ben gave Ms Truss credit for pursuing the approach she set out in the Tory leadership campaign. “She said she was going to take action and do things and I can see her doing that already,” said Leon. “So at the moment let’s give her a chance.”