WA candidates are already lining up for the 2024 election. Here’s who stands a chance | Opinion

Strap yourself in, the 2024 election is underway. Across the country and here at home, candidates are announcing for office. Governor Jay Inslee’s announcement that he will not seek a fourth term has broken a political logjam and caused other offices to open up for competition. There will be twists and turns and surprises along the way, but one thing is virtually certain: Democrats in Washington are likely to have another very good election in 2024.

Former Speaker Tip O’Neil famously said, “All politics are local.” That was likely true when he said it, but today, all politics are national, and driven by partisan trends. National partisan trends are far, far more important than local candidate or campaign quality for every partisan race. And every data point we can see now points toward a Democratic trend next year.

Donald Trump’s transformation of the Republican Party made the GOP stronger in some parts of America but has crippled it on the West Coast. Republicans lost heavily in 2018, and then lost ground again in 2022, a midterm election that should have favored them. Add with higher turnout in a presidential cycle, and the consistent Republican losses around the country since Roe v Wade was overturned, it seems safe to assume that Democratic candidates in Washington state will do slightly better in 2024 than they did in 2022, which will likely tilt even more close races to the Ds.

What follows is an opening look at races in Washington state from the White House to the state legislature, with the most competitive races first.

Third Congressional District: By far the most interesting, impactful and competitive race in Washington next year will be in the 3rd Congressional District, which ranges from Olympia to Portland. This is a Republican-leaning district, but in 2022 ultra MAGA Republican Joe Kent defeated long-time GOP representative Jaimie Herrera-Beutler in the primary, then went on to lose to Democrat Maria Gluesenkamp Perez by just 2,629 votes in November. This will likely be one of the handful of races that will decide the majority in the U.S. House and should draw national attention and national money. Perez was able to eke out a win last time, so she starts out as the favorite, but this will be close.

Governor: Two Democratic heavyweights, Attorney General Bob Ferguson and Commissioner of Public Lands Hillary Franz have already announced. Two Republicans have also said they will run, Richland school board member Semi Bird and Yakima doctor Raul Garcia. It is likely others from both parties will join the race. Republicans have not elected a Governor in 44 years. In this atmosphere that is not going to change. The drama will be centered on the battle within the Democratic party, and whether or not a Republican can make it through the top-two primary.

Attorney General: The AGs office has frequently been the steppingstone to winning, or at least competing, for the Governor’s office or the U.S. Senate, so an open seat race here will draw a lot of attention. State Senator Manka Dhingra has already announced, and several other prominent Democrats are considering entering the race. So far, no Republican has emerged. This will be another race where the drama will be all about which Democrat emerges as the next heir apparent to the Olympia throne.

Eighth Congressional District: For decades the 8th, which includes eastern Pierce and King counties and a slice of eastern Washington, was a major national battleground. But in 2022, in what was expected to be a close race, Democrat Kim Schrier defeated Republican Matt Larkin by a comfortable seven percentage points. For 2024, Republicans have a credible candidate in Carmen Goers of Kent. This race bears watching, but the results from 2022 indicate the 8th might have slipped beyond the reach of the GOP.

Races for the Legislature: There are 49 legislative districts in our state, each of which elects two state House members and one state Senator, but in today’s hyper-partisan political system there are really only three districts where races will definitely be in doubt.

In the 42nd district (Whatcom County), the 10th district (Island and Skagit counties) and the 26th district (Gig Harbor) elections are consistently very, very close. Races in those districts will be toss-ups, and there might be a handful of others that are somewhat competitive. But the overall picture in Olympia is not going to change next year. Democrats will retain large majorities in the House and Senate.

And finally: Democrats will continue to hold all the “minor” statewide offices. Senator Maria Cantwell and all the congressional incumbents will be reelected.

President Biden will carry Washington state by a very wide margin.

Chris Vance is a former Republican state legislator, King County Council member and State Party Chairman who left the GOP in 2017 and is now a member of the moderate Forward Party.