Can Wade Herring beat Buddy Carter? 1st District election will come down to voter turnout

The race for Georgia’s 1st Congressional District will pit longtime Republican Rep. Buddy Carter against political newcomer and Savannah lawyer Wade Herring.

It’s something Herring has been hoping for since Jan. 6, 2021, when Carter voted not to certify the vote count for President Joe Biden. For Carter, it’s a new challenger from the other side of the aisle, something he’s seen many times in his so-far undefeated 28-year political career, which spans the municipal, state and federal levels.

Carter has held his congressional seat since 2014, and none of his challengers have come close to upsetting him. The closest was Lisa Ring in 2018, when she got 42.3% of the vote.

Georgia as a whole may have flipped for Biden in 2020, but 1st District voters still chose Carter that year. Herring’s 2022 opponent in the primary and runoff, Joyce Marie Griggs, managed to get 41.7% in her run against Carter in 2020.

Carter Q&A: Rep. Buddy Carter says Jan. 6 riot was 'stupid,' but was 'politicized and weaponized' by Democrats

Herring Q&A: First District candidate Wade Herring recalls Jan. 6, the day he decided to run for office

But that was before Carter’s vote not to certify the results of the 2020 election, a decision Herring hopes will drive centrist and center-right voters away from the longtime representative.

But it will be an uphill battle. Even before Carter, the last time a Democrat held the seat was in 1993.

Carter says he's running on his record, claiming credit for bringing federal funding to the 1st District's ports in Savannah and Brunswick.

"A lot of (my campaign) will be based on our record. If you look at what we have accomplished here in the past eight years since I've been a member of Congress, with the results at the Georgia Ports, down in the Brunswick ports, the economy overall, and the quality of life here in coastal Georgia, I think we've got a great record run on," Carter said in January.

In a way, Herring is also running on Carter's record, spurred to run by his vote on Jan. 6. But since then, he's built a polished campaign and managed to perform well in the runoff after coming in a close second in the primary.

"[Carter's vote] was a fundamental violation of his oath of office to protect and defend the Constitution. It made me angry and disappointed and sad. And I knew that night that I had to do something, and I had to do something public."

Turnout might be a difference maker

Above all, the only way Herring has a chance at beating Carter is through massive voter turnout, and there are plenty of unanswered questions in that arena.

To pull it off, he'll need support from not just the entire left-wing base, but also win over a few centrist Republicans dissatisfied with Carter.

General elections during presidential election years are usually the most well attended, but midterms are a strong second in terms of participation. Typically, whichever party is in power is at a disadvantage on Election Day, and the Democrats currently control the U.S. House, the Senate and the presidency.

None of that is particularly good news for Herring.

In 2020, then-President Donald Trump was a big turnout driver, for both supporters and detractors, and led to the most well-attended election in Georgia history. But he’s not on the ballot in November.

Only one race has the potential to truly push turnout for the midterm: the Abrams vs. Kemp governor's race rematch. Since their first bout in 2018, the two have remained high-profile political figures both in Georgia and nationally.

Gubernatorial race: Brian Kemp, Stacey Abrams take aim at centrist vote at Savannah conference. But who will win it?

In the primary, Kemp had an opponent, but Abrams didn’t, which could account for the massive difference in turnout between the two ballots. Abrams is a popular figure, but without a primary contender, interest in the race could have dropped a few levels for her supporters.

Statewide, over 1.2 million voters cast ballots in the Republican primary for governor, but on the Democratic side, only 727,168 voters turned out.

It’s a far cry from 2020, when 2.4 million Georgians showed up for both presidential candidates, with a little over 12,000 votes deciding which way the state swung.

Abortion

With the Supreme Court's recent decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, codifying abortion rights into law through Congress has become the only real option available for the left, something the Democrats have so far failed to do, even with the leaked decision giving them a glimpse into the future while they had control in Washington.

USAToday: Would Roe v. Wade's demise reshape the midterm elections? Ask that question in October.

Read More: Savannah women tell their abortion stories in wake of Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade

Even so, some voters have expressed fatigue with the Democratic party over their failures to codify Roe. Herring has been outspoken about protecting abortion rights, saying he would vote for such federal legislation to protect abortion rights should Roe be overturned.

“The Supreme Court made the wrong decision to overturn well-established law based on the fundamental right of privacy. I trust women to make healthcare choices about their bodies," he said. "Reproductive rights are healthcare rights. Now that the Supreme Court has reversed Roe v. Wade, Congress must act to restore reproductive rights. When elected, I will fight for federal legislation to ensure women's right to choose. I am the only candidate for Congress in Georgia’s 1st District who trusts women to make their own healthcare decisions. Elections matter, and your vote makes a difference."

Carter is anti-abortion and says he would support federal legislation that would prevent abortions entirely with no exceptions. Carter said he supports the failed 2012 Sanctity of Human Life Act, which would provide an embryo full personhood beginning at fertilization.

“Millions of children have been silent victims of a decades-long siege on their right to life. The heartbeats heard in ultrasound appointments have now been heard by the Supreme Court, and we finally have a nation that honors the humanity of unborn children,” said Carter. “We followed the science, and it led us to know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that life begins at conception. The same unborn children that can feel pain in the womb will one day feel immense joy knowing that their life was valued from day one.”

Reaction: Lawmakers, activists weigh in on SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe v. Wade

Roe v. Wade Overturned: Will the Chatham DA prosecute people who get abortions?

Money a central factor

Herring thus far has been a fundraising force, though if you ask him about it, he’ll bemoan the role of money in politics. He points to his rival’s massive war chest, filled to the brim with $1.2 million from individuals contributions and PAC donations. 

Like it or not, money is a central factor in campaigning, and when you’re up against Carter, who has never raised less than $1.2 million in a congressional run, it’s a necessity.

Also: Buddy Carter has never raised less than $1.2 million in a 1st District race. Can Wade Herring win?

Herring has raised more than $700,000 in his first 11 months of his campaign, and his donations thus far have come almost exclusively from individual contributions, a fact he pointed to more frequently in the early days of his campaign.

And he’ll likely have some help.

With other high-profile Democrats on the Georgia ballot this November, not just Abrams but also U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock as well, pundits expect big money to pour in for the midterms. Georgia is treading swing state waters now, and swing states get attention from big donors.

Beyond the campaign ads: Learn about the Georgia candidates running for Senate

And now that Herring has the nomination, he's in position to expand his fundraising roster and attract money from the state Democratic party, the Democratic National Committee and other Democratic donors.

Herring considers himself a legitimate contender, and sees his many individual contributions as a sign that the people of the 1st District want change, and are willing to put their money where their mouth was.

That onus now falls on Herring, who has said from the start that his campaign is designed to “beat Buddy Carter.” Only time will tell if he can.

Will Peebles is the enterprise reporter for Savannah Morning News. He can be reached at wpeebles@gannett.com and @willpeeblessmn on Twitter.

This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: Wade Herring, Buddy Carter vie for District 1 congressional seat