We want Bama! Border War in Memphis? Fun bowl projections for KU, K-State and Mizzou

Football fans across the Sunflower State won’t have to wait much longer to learn where their favorite college team will end up playing this bowl season.

Selection Sunday (yes, they call it that for both the College Football Playoff and March Madness) is less than a week away.

There isn’t all that much mystery surrounding Kansas State. The Wildcats appear destined for the Sugar Bowl no matter what happens against TCU in the Big 12 championship. But who will they play on Dec. 31 in New Orleans?

Kansas fans can focus on four bowls at the moment, with several unpredictable factors ultimately deciding where the Jayhawks end up. Which one of those four is most likely to select KU?

We will know soon enough. But it’s never too late to make a few educated guesses.

There are many new bowl possibilities for both the Wildcats (9-3, 7-2 Big 12) and the Kansas Jayhawks (6-6, 3-6) this week. Here is a look at the latest projections:

K-State Wildcats bowl outlook

Remaining schedule: TCU at Big 12 championship game.

Current Big 12 rank: 2

Bowl possibilities: Sugar Bowl vs. Alabama via The Action Network and The Athletic and CBS Sports, Sugar Bowl vs. Tennessee via Sporting News.

Analysis: Both the Alamo Bowl and Cheez-It Bowl sent representatives to Bill Snyder Family Stadium on Saturday to scout the Wildcats in person. Those turned out to be wasted trips, because K-State is all but assured of an invitation to the Sugar Bowl now that the regular season is over.

Some have asked if there is any way K-State could end up in another bowl. The answer, of course, is yes. But that is like asking if aliens will invade our planet on Christmas.

Both scenarios are very unlikely.

K-State will automatically qualify for the Sugar Bowl as Big 12 champion if it defeats TCU. It will also earn a Sugar Bowl invite with a loss, so long as TCU earns a berth in the playoff. Remember, the Sugar Bowl is contractually obligated to match the best Big 12 team that didn’t make the playoff against the best SEC team that didn’t make the playoff.

In order for K-State to play elsewhere, it would need to beat TCU so convincingly that it earns a playoff spot despite losing three games this season. Or TCU would have to win the Big 12 championship and then get snubbed by the selection committee despite its undefeated record.

Some have suggested that K-State (No. 10) could lose so badly that it drops below Texas (No. 20) in the final CFP rankings. But that is not a concern, as the Sugar Bowl selects its replacement Big 12 team based on regular-season record, not the CFP rankings. The Wildcats went 9-3 and 7-2 in conference play. The Longhorns finished 8-4 and 6-3.

I’m thinking it’s more likely that aliens invade.

The better question is who K-State will play in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama, LSU and Tennessee are the primary candidates. The Crimson Tide are probably the current favorite, as they are unlikely to reach the playoff without serious help. But if they sneak into the top four, that would open the door for LSU or Tennessee.

Might as well start those “We want Bama” chants now.

Kansas Jayhawks bowl outlook

Remaining schedule: Season complete.

Current Big 12 rank: T7

Bowl possibilities: Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri via The Action Network and The Athletic, Armed Forces Bowl vs. UTSA via Sporting News, First Responder Bowl vs. BYU via CBS Sports

Analysis: The top five games in the Big 12 bowl order are easy to project. Not so much with the bottom three.

Baylor, Kansas and Oklahoma all finished with identical 6-6 records. How do you break the tie? That is impossible to say. Bowl games are free to choose whichever team they want, for any reason they choose. The Bears have the best Big 12 record of the three and beat both KU and OU this season, but that will mean nothing on Selection Sunday.

Several sports writers are projecting KU to play Missouri in the Liberty Bowl. That would be fun. But I am skeptical we will see that matchup. For starters, the Liberty Bowl picks fifth in the Big 12 bowl order. Odds are high that Oklahoma will still be available. The Sooners are usually off the board way before it is time for the Liberty Bowl to make a selection. Would they really pass on OU?

Also: the SEC selects which of its teams play in several postseason games, including the Liberty Bowl. Would it sign off on the Border War when the Jayhawks have a realistic shot at beating the Tigers? Maybe. But I’m not so sure the Tigers wouldn’t ask for a different assignment.

If we miss out on a Border War in Memphis, the next option is the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix. This is where I think the Jayhawks end up. Baylor ended the season with three straight losses and its fans are used to playing in much bigger bowls. KU is also on a three-game losing streaks, but its fans are hungry to travel to a bowl after not playing in one since 2008. In my eyes, that makes the Jayhawks a more attractive choice to match up against a Big Ten opponent.

But both those games could pass on Kansas. If they do, that means the Jayhawks are heading to the DFW Metroplex for the Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 22 in Fort Worth) or the First Responder Bowl (Dec. 27 in Dallas) for the postseason.

Kellis Robinett’s Big 12 bowl projections

TCU - Fiesta Bowl vs. Michigan

K-State - Sugar Bowl vs. Alabama

Texas - Alamo Bowl vs. Utah

Texas Tech - Cheez-It Bowl vs. Florida State

Oklahoma State - Texas Bowl vs. Missouri

Oklahoma - Liberty vs. Arkansas

Kansas - Guaranteed Rate vs. Wisconsin

Baylor - Armed Forces Bowl vs. Air Force