Is the war in Ukraine affecting our grocery bills?
Most of us have noticed the higher cost of living reflected in groceries and gasoline. Some of us have started using coupons and even TVP (textured vegetable protein) to stretch out our meals. We may be visiting multiple stores to find favorable sales, and making a lot of lentil and potato soup.
Why is this happening? Inflation has many causes. We often hear the White House refer to Putin as a cause of inflation. Is the war in Ukraine affecting our grocery bills?
There’s a kernel of truth to the idea. Russia and Ukraine are the top exporters of wheat and corn. Russia had blocked Ukraine's ports, leading to a food crisis. Ukraine is known as the breadbasket of Europe, as it is one of the world's greatest exporters of wheat, barley, corn and soybeans. Russia is also a great exporter of grain and fertilizer. Since the invasion the northern coast of the Black Sea, shared by Russia and Ukraine, had become too dangerous to export these foodstuffs, leaving the world (and especially the poor countries of Africa, Asia and the Middle East) at a great loss, triggering starvation and despair.
The war has made the Black Sea an inhospitable place for global commerce. As a cheap means of sending bulky goods abroad, Ukraine sent 70% of its exports by sea. Lack of access to food and fuel has disrupted many parts of the world from Europe to Sri Lanka. The higher prices for our food in the U.S. has multiple causes, but one surely is the war.
I think we all have been hoping for peace negotiations — a peaceful solution — manifested by shipping grain from the Black Sea ports again.
And now there is a glimmer of hope. An international deal has been brokered to ease the global food crisis. Finally, a grain shipment! According to Turkish and Ukrainian officials, the first grain ship, the Razoni, left the port of Odesa on Monday morning. This was part of an agreement to secure safe passage through the Black Sea. It is called the Safe Passage Agreement. And the first shipment is from Odesa to Lebanon.
Odesa is Ukraine's biggest port, and its spelling has recently changed from Odessa to Odesa.
According to a Voice of America report, UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutierrez said the ship was “loaded with two commodities in short supply: corn and hope. Hope for millions of people around the world who depend on the smooth running of Ukraine’s ports to feed their families.”
There is danger, of course, in hidden mines and rockets hitting warehouses, but hopefully there will be safe passage through the Black Sea. The goal is to eventually pass through the Bosporus Straits, a narrow strait between Europe and Turkey.
Under the new arrangement, at least 5 million metric tons of grain will be sent per month.
Even if every one of the 16 shipments agreed between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN were able to reach world markets, the loss of production will continue. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that the war will cut its agricultural output by 50%. Russia and Ukraine comprise almost a third of world grain exports. The months-long blockade has raised global food prices. It has threatened political instability, and brought more people into hunger. And the most vulnerable people, Asia, Africa and Middle East, are suffering the most.
As bad as it is, we know how lucky we are compared to Africa and the Middle East, for whom famine and hunger are daily struggles. Social unrest could even worsen. This war has shown us that we need a new way forward ― to decrease the vulnerability of shipping, and control for the vicissitudes of life.
— This is the opinion of Times Writers Group member Barbara Banaian, a professional pianist who lives in the St. Cloud area. Her column is published the first Sunday of the month.
This article originally appeared on St. Cloud Times: Is the war in Ukraine affecting our grocery bills?
