Washington Football Team’s Chase Young could be a major reason Giants miss playoffs in 2020

The Giants could miss the playoffs in 2020 because of one meaningless win in Dec. 2019.

There would be other reasons, of course, but the shortsighted decision to play for a victory over Washington in Week 16 of last year’s 4-12 season has had no small impact.

That win, in a game dubbed The Chase Young Bowl, handed Washington the No. 2 overall pick in last spring’s NFL Draft and the raw but high-upside pass rusher from Ohio State.

Young is now dominating, leading Washington (6-7) to four straight wins and an NFC East division lead ahead of the Giants (5-8) with three games to play.

“He’s a dog,” Washington defensive lineman Daron Payne told reporters after Young’s electric performance in a 23-15 road win over the 49ers in Arizona.

It always seemed possible, even likely, that the Giants could regret not losing that game and taking the No. 2 pick and Young for themselves. But in year one? That’s just rubbing it in.

Young on Sunday became the first rookie in NFL history — and just the third player overall (since 1999, when these stats were first recorded) — to have two passes defensed, a sack, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, and a fumble return for a TD in the same game.

His 47-yard fumble return for a touchdown was breathtaking: a 6-5, 264-pound freight train blasting down the left sideline, the ball palmed in Young’s left hand like, as he described it, “a loaf of bread.”

The Giants, of course, beat Young’s Washington Football Team twice this season and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. Young forced a Daniel Jones end zone interception with a ferocious pressure in their first meeting but didn’t completely wreck either game to take down Big Blue.

Young has had his ups and downs, too. He cost his team in a Week 10 loss at Detroit with a late personal foul penalty. And even as a blue-chip draft prospect, it was clear he would need to continue developing to grow from a freak athlete making splash plays into a consistent producer at the next level.

That ascendence, however, has not taken very long.

Young is Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded rookie (78.1) among players with 130 or more snaps. Pass rusher has been such an enormous need for the Giants ever since GM Dave Gettleman took over three seasons ago. And he still has not addressed this roster deficiency.

So it’s gut-wrenching to think that all the Giants had to do in a pathetic 2019 season was lose just one more game and they could have had this potential transcendent talent. But they chose a meaningless short-term result because John Mara and the organization don’t believe in tanking — and maybe because they wanted evidence Jones could win a game, too.

Remember, Jones had lost eight consecutive starts — then sat while Eli Manning played two — before returning for that overtime victory at Washington.

Fast-forwarding back to this season, the Giants’ No. 4 overall pick left tackle Andrew Thomas, meanwhile, just followed up his best game of the season in Seattle with a regression against the Arizona Cardinals.

Thomas didn’t allow a single pressure in back to back games against the Bengals and Seahawks coming in. He graded 87.1 in Seattle, per PFF, his previous high being a 72.7 against Young and Washington in Week 6.

On Sunday against the Cardinals, however, PFF blamed Thomas for seven pressures and two sacks by Arizona’s Haason Reddick, who racked up a franchise record five sacks on the day. Third-round pick Matt Peart, meanwhile, received a 0.0 pass protection grade for allowing three pressures on 11 snaps, per PFF.

Thomas, I think, has potential to keep growing, and it’s way too early to make a definitive judgement on him. His 51 pressures allowed tie him with the Jaguars’ Jawaan Taylor to lead the league, though, and Thomas is PFF’s lowest graded of the top four tackles in this draft class.

It’s Bucs right tackle Tristan Wirfs (81.4 in 861 snaps), Jets left tackle Mekhi Becton (75.5 in 521 snaps), Browns left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. (62.5 in 725 snaps), and Thomas (61.3 in 800 snaps). The highest-graded rookie tackle is actually Patriots sixth-round pick Michael Onwenu (84.4 in 757 snaps, including 536 at right tackle).

The pass protection numbers are more dramatic. Pressures allowed are Thomas (51), Wirfs (19), Becton (18, albeit in much fewer snaps), and Wills (14). Thomas’ eight sacks allowed are the most, though Becton has given up six in almost 300 fewer snaps. Wills is PFF’s top pass protector of the four at 81.6, ahead of Wirfs (79.9) and Becton (75.5), with Thomas at 52.1.

Thomas did say last week that in his rookie season, it took him time to learn how not to overset and allow pass rushers inside. He said this was because he has been taught to set differently than he used to at Georgia.

“At Georgia, I was always on a straight and hard 45 angle,” Thomas said. “Recently, I’ve been working a little bit more vertical to an angle set just depending on the alignment of pressures. When I was at Georgia, we did that 45 set a lot. We did a lot of slide protection, so if I did overset, the guard a lot of times would be right there. We run a little bit different protection here, and the way we spot and set was going to be different. I had to break that habit.”

This was an issue former Giants O-line coach Marc Colombo mentioned publicly to the media prior to his firing, so it was clear they’d been working with Thomas on it and it wasn’t taking. Thomas said he was also learning slightly different “hand placement.”

Joe Judge eventually interjected into the process, fired Colombo and now has Dave DeGuglielmo running the line. That has coincided with some of Thomas’ better games, but Sunday was a step back.

Regardless of how you judge Thomas’ rookie growing pains, though, it is hard to watch Young surge with Washington and not wonder if this could cost the Giants immediately in 2020.

Washington now has a 68.2% chance of winning the NFC East, followed by the Giants (24.4%), Eagles (6.6%) and Cowboys (0.7%). The Giants’ best chance of getting in is probably hoping they can win two of three, see Washington lose two of three, and get in on the tiebreaker at seven wins apiece.

That’s certainly possible, especially since Dwayne Haskins might start Sunday against Seattle for the injured Alex Smith. But the Giants’ schedule is no picnic with the Browns, Ravens and Cowboys on deck. Washington closes with the Seahawks, Panthers and Eagles.

Last week, before Young and Washington handed the Steelers their first loss of the season, NFL FIlms’ cameras caught Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin paying Young this compliment:

“I don’t ever want to lose enough games to get a guy like you,” Tomlin told Young. “You’ve got to lose 14, 15 games to get a guy who looks like you.”

The Giants were right there last season. They were already on their way to losing 12 games. All they had to do was lose a 13th and Young was theirs.

And they passed.

Now, already in 2020, they may pay.