What to Watch as Biden Meets Marcos Amid Elevated China Tensions

Andreo Calonzo
·4 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- US President Joe Biden and his Philippine counterpart Ferdinand Marcos Jr. are set to meet on Monday to strengthen one of the oldest alliances in the region that was threatened by a pivot to China under the latter’s predecessor.

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Marcos’s first White House visit since he took power last year is expected to lead to broader economic partnerships and even greater defense ties between the two nations against the backdrop of escalating tensions with China over the disputed South China Sea, and more recently over Taiwan.

Biden will reaffirm the United States’ “ironclad commitment to the defense of the Philippines” when he meets Marcos, according to the White House. In his departure remarks on Sunday, Marcos said he’s “determined to forge an even stronger relationship” with the US as well as “push for greater economic engagement” between the two countries.

Marcos, who met Biden in the US in September on the sidelines of a UN General Assembly, said then that he couldn’t envision his country without America as a partner, setting into motion a restoration of the nations’ ties undermined by ex-President Rodrigo Duterte’s shift toward China.

The leaders’ meeting comes as the US accused China at the weekend of harassing Philippine ships after a near collision in the contested waters days ago while Washington and Manila conducted their biggest ever joint defense drills.

Here are the items to watch during Marcos’s official US visit:

Defense

US-Philippine defense ties are expected to be high on the agenda, with Marcos hoping to discuss with Biden how military agreements can “evolve.” The two nations are bound by a 71-year-old mutual defense treaty, to which Biden earlier said the US has an “ironclad” commitment.

“We will reaffirm our commitment to fostering our long-standing alliance as an instrument of peace and as a catalyst of development in the Asia-Pacific region and the rest of the world,” Marcos said Sunday.

The presidents are also expected to highlight the expansion in February of US access to Philippine military sites including areas near Taiwan and the South China Sea — a move criticized by Beijing. America’s pledge of more than $100 million this year for these sites and another $100 million for helicopters are likely up for discussions.

“The US-Philippines alliance under Marcos is in excellent shape, with the two nations operating in lockstep on the core security challenge of dealing with China,” said Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the California-based research group RAND Corporation.

Marcos said he will not allow “any provocative action by any country” that will involve the Philippines. “We will not allow the Philippines to be used as a staging post for any kind of military action,” he told reporters Sunday onboard the plane on his way to the US.

The Philippine leader also wants to discuss fishing rights with China in the South China Sea, saying it’s the most immediate concern that needs to be addressed. “That’s what we have to decide and they have agreed again to sit down,” he said.

Economic Cooperation

Biden and Marcos are also expected to “review opportunities to deepen economic cooperation,” the White House said. The US is the Philippines’ second largest export market last year, next to China.

Manila is pushing for a bilateral free trade agreement with Washington, as well as the removal of import duties. The US, for its part, wants to secure the Philippines’ support for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, a deal to counter China’s influence in the region.

“If the Biden administration is serious about forging closer ties with the Philippines, the relationship should go beyond the military hardware,” said Professor Elaine Tolentino from the De La Salle University’s international studies department in Manila.

Clean Energy, Climate Change

Semiconductors, clean energy, food and energy security and climate change are other areas of focus in the US visit, Marcos said Sunday.

The Philippine leader is seeking to attract investors in renewables, as his nation targets a 75% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

US Vice President Kamala Harris in November announced plans to hold talks with the Philippines on a civil nuclear-energy agreement. Washington has also pledged to support the growth of the offshore wind market and the development of nickel and cobalt facilities in the Southeast Asian nation.

--With assistance from Manolo Serapio Jr..

(Adds Marcos comments, White House statement.)

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