What to watch when Bills arrive at Arrowhead + how rare was Chiefs’ Hail Mary attempt?

The Chiefs were down to their final snap last weekend at Green Bay.

Trailing by eight points with five seconds remaining, the ball at the Packers’ 33-yard line, the Chiefs’ only option was to attempt a last-gasp throw into the end zone.

A Hail Mary.

Football’s act of desperation succeeds less than 10% of the time, according to ESPN, and this one joined the majority, with Patrick Mahomes’ pass falling incomplete. Could pass interference have been called for the rough defending of Travis Kelce? Probably. But flags are rarely thrown on Hail Mary plays.

This got us wondering: How often have the Mahomes-era Chiefs even been in such a position, where they’re forced to resort to a prayer of a play? Turns out, Sunday’s effort doubled their total.

This was at the end of the game, not the end of the first half, and Sunday’s loss was the Chiefs’ 20th in Mahomes’ six seasons as their full-time starting quarterback.

So, for the Chiefs, there haven’t been many occasions in which a Hail Mary attempt was needed.

The only other time it happened occurred in 2021, at Arrowhead, against the Los Angeles Chargers. L.A. went ahead 30-24 with 32 seconds remaining. Mahomes got the Chiefs to the Chargers’ 49, but his heave toward the end zone with just seconds remaining fell incomplete around the 2-yard line.

In 2017, when Alex Smith was their starting QB, the Chiefs pulled off an amazing play in a Hail Mary situation. On the final play of the first half in a game at Dallas, Smith threw the ball about 20 yards to Tyreek Hill, who sliced through tacklers, got some blocks and completed a 57-yard touchdown.

Here’s what to watch when the Chiefs play host to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday:

Chiefs player to watch: linebacker Nick Bolton

All signs point to Bolton’s return from a wrist injury that forced him to go on Injured Reserve after four games. Bolton’s return wouldn’t come a moment too soon for the Chiefs: Top reserve Drue Tranquill, who has filled in admirably for Bolton, suffered a concussion last week at Green Bay and didn’t practice this week.

“He’s an energy giver,” defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo said of Bolton. “He boosts me. ... I know the guys feel that in the huddle. Everybody knows what he’s all about and what he brings and how he communicates.”

Bills player to watch: Tight end Dawson Knox

Like Bolton, Knox has spent time on IR with a wrist injury this season. He was a full practice participant earlier in the week and would be a big addition if he’s cleared to play Sunday. Knox has played in five game against the Chiefs, including the playoffs, and has touchdown receptions in three of them.

“The challenges that he presents for defense, he’s been extremely valuable not just in the pass game, but in the run game as well and defenses have to take into account for that,” Josh Allen said. “We’re just going to play it by ear. And the more that we can get them involved in the offense, the better we will be this year.”

Special teams player to watch: Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker

The most perfect season by a kicker in NFL history belongs to Mike Vanderjagt, who in 2003, while playing for the Indianapolis Colts, made all 37 of his field-goal attempts and 46 extra point tries during the regular season. He then made all three of his field-goal attempts and 12 extra-point attempts in the playoffs.

Butker remains perfect this season after 22 field goals and 29 extra points.

Arrowhead brings out best in Bills QB Josh Allen

This week, Bills QB Allen spoke of the great atmosphere at Arrowhead, saying, “Those fans are as excited and as loud as they come.”

But Kansas City hasn’t been an intimidating place for Allen and the Bills. In fact, Allen is the only quarterback to win twice at Arrowhead in the Mahomes era. The Bills won regular-season games in Kansas City in 2021 and 2022 and Allen was brilliant in both. He threw three touchdown passes and no interceptions in each, was sacked one, and rushed for a combined 91 yards.

Although the Bills and Allen are 0-2 against the Chiefs in the playoffs (both games at Arrowhead), he has thrown for six touchdowns and rushed for 156 yards.

“He’s hard to bring down, he’s such a big dude,” Spagnuolo said. “I think he’s an elite competitor.”