Watch Long Island's special congressional election. It could be a forecast | Kelly

December seemed so promising for Democrats.

The lying, federally indicted Republican Rep. George Santos, who reportedly used campaign cash for Botox treatments and falsely claimed, among other things, to be Jewish and a college volleyball star, had just been booted from Congress by his own party. Back on Long Island, Santos’ suburban congressional district was up for grabs.

It seemed like easy pickings for Democrats to take another seat in the House of Representatives — and a chance to cut into the GOP majority.

Well, think again.

The special election, set for next Tuesday, to fill out the remaining months of Santos' term has suddenly turned into a nail-biter, with two issues at the vortex of the debate: immigration and abortion.

Are you listening, Joe Biden? How about you, Donald Trump? And for that matter, are the Democratic and Republican strategists in House races in suburban New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, California and elsewhere in New York State paying attention?

The key in 2024 — as ever — will be the suburbs

It’s hardly a secret that the suburbs, home to millions of independent, swing voters who dislike the extremists of both parties, will likely control the outcome of this year’s presidential race. America’s cities are mostly in the hands of Democrats. Rural America has long been solidly Republican. It's also hardly a secret that such culture war issues as abortion and immigration have emerged as front and center in the minds of voters from both parties.

But suburbs are supposedly an X-factor, up for grabs for candidates who don’t seem too Trumpian or too woke. Yes, Democrats think they can count on support from suburban women who support abortion rights. But will migration emerge to balance the political scales and improve the GOP's standing in the suburbs?

This is why the House race for District 3 looms as a potential warning signal for both parties as they prepare for the epic battles for control of the White House and Congress this fall. Think of this special election as a voters’ “canary” in the ever-deepening coal mine of American politics.

The stretch of Queens and Long Island known as District 3, which includes such iconic suburban commuter towns as Oyster Bay, Glen Cove, Bethpage and Levittown, has long been considered a stable bastion of moderates. Median household income is nearly $130,000, making it the wealthiest House district in New York State and fourth-wealthiest in America.

Yes, Democrats have run well in the district’s presidential races. In 2020, Biden won by 10% over Trump.

But the House of Representatives races were always a very different story, with the parties trading places over and over, often depending on the mood of the nation.

Since 1935, six Republicans and six Democrats have represented the district in the House. And during the past 30 years, such representatives as Republican Peter King and Democrats Steve Israel and Tom Suozzi were so moderate and so often voted with their political opponents that their party affiliations seemed almost inconsequential.

Then came Santos.

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In 2022, Santos won the district by 7%. He was young, a political newcomer, hardly known by Republicans. He seemed like a new face for the GOP — especially with the party picking up other seats in upstate New York.

But Santos turned out to be a massive fraud. His life and political career quickly unraveled, leaving the district facing another election.

Suozzi, 61, a former mayor of Glen Cove and Nassau County executive, who left the House in 2022 after three terms to run unsuccessfully in New York’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, decided to jump back into politics and try to return to the House.

Many figured the special election would be an easy glide for Suozzi to a political comeback. As a congressman — and mayor and county executive before that — Suozzi was well liked and in touch with his roots.

During his first stint in Congress, Suozzi emerged as a key player in the stridently bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, led by Rep. Josh Gottheimer, the North Jersey Democrat whose middle-of-the-road, kitchen-table positions mirrored many of Suozzi’s and gained wide support in his moderate suburban district. Suozzi had few legislative accomplishments. But he stood out by positioning himself as a bipartisan player in a distinctly partisan environment where fringes of both parties grabbed the most attention and created a legislative gridlock.

For Democrats, a Suozzi reelection would be a sign not only that the district was turning away from the Santos debacle but that it yearned for the kind of moderate bipartisanship that could be counted on to insure a sense of calm governing. Think of Suozzi as a bit like Joe Biden in 2020. He was the old guard, the guy who could bring stability back to Congress.

Then came the buses with migrants.

And then came a little-known Republican candidate who found a sweet spot with voters.

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In Pilip, Republicans have a competitive candidate

Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip, 44, seemed little more than a sacrificial lamb when she was trotted out by her party to run against Suozzi. After all, what can you say about a GOP candidate who has been a registered Democrat since 2012?

But Pilip caught the attention of voters quickly with her backstory.

Born in poverty in Ethiopia to Jewish parents, she escaped the growing antisemitism there by moving to Israel. Pilip went on to serve in the Israeli Army, then married a Jewish man from Ukraine who became a cardiologist. The couple moved to Long Island, where they are raising seven children.

In 2021, while officially registered as a Democrat, she ran as a Republican for a seat in the Nassau County Legislature — and ended up defeating a four-term incumbent Democrat.

Like many other suburban Republicans — including those in New Jersey, for instance — Pilip has walked a delicate line with Donald Trump. She has not joined the “Make America Great Again” chant that Trump’s criminal indictments are unfair. She says, “Trump has to go through the process” and that “nobody’s above the law.”

But she ardently supports Israel in its war against Hamas — an important policy position in the district, where roughly 20% of the voters are Jewish. She also claims to be anti-abortion but does not support a national ban — a difficult stance in her suburban district.

More importantly, perhaps, Pilip has cast herself as opposed to illegal immigration — in particular the swarms of migrants who have recently flocked to America’s southern border and are now flooding into New York City. The issue has alarmed many of the towns in her district that border Queens, which fear an influx of migrants. 

Suddenly, Pilip’s race with Suozzi has become too close to call. A poll in January by Emerson College and WPIX found that Suozzi led Pilip by only 3 percentage points — 45% to 42%. Last week, The New York Times described the race as a “dead heat.” The Emerson College poll found that 26% of the district’s voters felt that illegal immigration has become a “very serious problem.”

What will Long Island do?

New York’s television channels are awash in cantankerous ads where Suozzi mocks Pilip for her anti-abortion position and Pilip returns fire, claiming that Suozzi has been lax on immigration.

This political battle is set to end on Tuesday — just in time for St. Valentine’s Day and Ash Wednesday. And just in time for the presidential rumble to kick into another gear.

The good news is that we know what’s coming. The bad news, as we've learned from this race on Long Island, is that we know how vicious it will be.

Mike Kelly is an award-winning columnist for NorthJersey.com, part of the USA TODAY Network, as well as the author of three critically acclaimed nonfiction books and a podcast and documentary film producer. To get unlimited access to his insightful thoughts on how we live life in the Northeast, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: kellym@northjersey.com

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Long Island election with Tom Suozzi, Mazi Melesa Pilip a forecast