What to Watch For as Thai Politics Promises More Drama in 2024

Patpicha Tanakasempipat
·6 min read
5
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

(Bloomberg) -- Thai politics has had an eventful year, with a general election ending nearly a decade of military-backed rule and former premier Thaksin Shinawatra setting foot in the Southeast Asian country for the first time in 15 years.

Most Read from Bloomberg

Next year promises more political drama in the Southeast Asian kingdom, with ghosts of the May election still haunting the party that won the vote but was subsequently blocked from power. The fate of a mega cash handout program will be a key test for the new government of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, while his grand promise of uprooting junta-era legacies is yet to materialize. And with Thaksin’s expected early release and a key constitutional rule set to change next year, Thai politics could yet see more twists and turns.

At stake are a sluggish economy, and the need to win favor among investors who pulled out billions of dollars out of the Thai bourse after this year’s post-election policy paralysis.

Here’s a guide to help you navigate Thai politics in 2024.

Court Rulings

Thailand’s constitutional court is likely to rule early next year whether Move Forward, the party that won the most parliamentary seats in the election and now finds itself sidelined to the opposition, had violated the charter by campaigning to amend the country’s lese majeste law. Anyone who runs afoul of Article 112, as it is known in the country’s penal code, could face up to 15 years in prison for defaming the king.

If the court rules that the campaign promise was an attempt to undermine the constitutional monarchy, it could set off a ripple effect that may see the Election Commission move to dissolve the party. Meanwhile, the same court will also rule on Jan. 24 whether to disqualify lawmaker Pita Limjaroenrat, Move Forward’s former leader, over his shareholding in a now-defunct media company.

Any action against Move Forward or the hugely popular Pita could trigger protests, raising the odds of political unrest. The disbanding of Move Forward’s predecessor party nearly four years ago had led to anti-government protests and gave rise to calls for reforms of the country’s powerful monarchy.

Senate Reset

An upcoming reset of the 250-member Senate in May will be a crucial turning point in Thai politics, as it will mark the end of the senators’ power to vote in a prime ministerial election — an authority given to them by a military-drafted constitution in 2017.

While they will continue to play a role in passing laws, not having a say in who becomes premier will leave them unable to protect the interests of the royalist-establishment as they did earlier this year when they blocked Pita, a pro-reform candidate, from taking the top political office.

The reset will impact the dynamics not only in parliament, but also in Srettha’s coalition. This will allow Srettha’s ruling Pheu Thai Party to reopen negotiations with the pro-military groups in its uneasy 11-party coalition — and a subsequent cabinet re-shuffle may consolidate Pheu Thai’s hold over the government while sidelining its conservative allies.

Digital Wallet

The proposed $14 billion digital cash handout program — currently set to be rolled out in May — was the ruling Pheu Thai Party’s main election promise to boost the economy. Srettha has vowed to lift annual growth to an average of 5% over four years in an economy that has crawled at under 2% on average over the last decade.

The flagship policy has drawn criticism from economists and ex-central bankers who have said it’s inflationary and risks saddling the nation with long-term debt. Adding to the bleak outlook is a near-record household indebtedness amid the highest interest rate in a decade.

Uncertainties abound: A flip-flopping of handout rules, an ever-shifting roll-out timeline and a clunky legislative process — following the government’s move to rely on borrowing to finance the program as opposed to budgetary financing — could potentially hurt investor confidence. So could a rift with the central bank.

Thaksin’s Release

The influential ex-leader, who was prime minister from 2001 until a coup ousted him in 2006 and fled the country two years later, is set to be a wild card when he walks free next year — regardless of whether he gets an early release on parole or another royal pardon.

A direct pardon from King Maha Vajiralongkorn meant his original eight-year prison term for graft was commuted to one and the septuagenarian will be out in August — a year after his surprise return home. Deemed de-facto leader of Pheu Thai and its predecessors in the intervening years — various members of the Shinawatra clan have helped publicly steer the parties — Thaksin has cast a long shadow over Thai politics.

While Thaksin has been in the hospital since late August for several medical treatments, his youngest daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra has taken charge as Pheu Thai’s new leader. Thaksin though is certain to play a more active role in politics upon release, and according to analysts, will likely overshadow the actual prime minister. There is even talk of a change at the top job after the Senate reset.

“Part of Srettha’s perceived weakness comes from questions over his influence within Pheu Thai. But that is also a strength as it makes him a more suitable compromise figure for this uneasy Pheu Thai-conservative coalition,” said Peter Mumford, Southeast Asia practice head at Eurasia Group. “Right now it seems there is not an easy alternative for prime minister, but that could change over time.”

Charter Referendum

The new government has vowed to replace the 2017 military-drafted constitution with a more democratic version. Although most political parties, including Pheu Thai, agree the country needs a new charter, opinions vary on whether some sensitive topics — especially those relating to the monarchy — should be off-limits. Lawmakers are also divided on whether a committee tasked with drafting the new charter should be wholly elected by the Thai people.

There’s a long way to the finish line: For now, the government has set up a committee to study the process for a referendum and are expected to reveal a roadmap by the year end. The tentative plan appears to be to hold a referendum within the first quarter of 2024 to determine whether Thais want a new constitution. The government estimates that the entire process could take about three years.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.