Water temperatures soar around Florida, causing more coral bleaching
Surface temperatures reached as high as 95 degrees Fahrenheit in the Florida Keys this week.
An ongoing ocean heat wave is pushing water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico into the mid 90s and threatening the survival of coral reefs.
Along Florida's southwest coast, surface temperatures were recorded this week as roughly 5 degrees above normal, and reached as high as 95 degrees Fahrenheit in the Florida Keys.
Lots of talk about the very warm Gulf of Mexico, specifically focused on South Florida. Sea “surface” temps in the Florida Keys are 92-95 degrees. That’s boiling for them! More typically it would be in the upper 80s. This map shows departures from normal of ~5 degrees F 🧵 1/ pic.twitter.com/wA5iD0SiDz
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) July 10, 2023
Coral bleaching
Extended periods of exceedingly warm water, such as those that have been linked to climate change, are potentially harmful to coral reefs, causing so-called bleaching events.
"When water is too warm, corals will expel the algae (zooxanthellae) living in their tissues causing the coral to turn completely white," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) states on its website.
That's especially worrisome for the Florida Keys, where less than 5 percent of coral cover still remains.
"The Keys are in a 'Hot Spot' as per @CoralReefWatch," Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist at WFLA-TV in Tampa, wrote in a Sunday Twitter thread. "With favorable weather patterns for stagnation the next 10 days + and hot sea surface temps, we should be watching this area closely to see what kind of bleaching occurs."
In June, NOAA warned that "significant" coral bleaching was expected from mid-August through late September, with the possibility of "severe bleaching, significant mortality" over that period. Since then, water temperatures have spiked.
⏰All @CoralReefWatch Caribbean Stations are at Bleaching Watch or higher. We expect the heat stress will reach or exceed Alert Levels 1 (significant #CoralBleaching) and 2 (severe bleaching, significant mortality) from mid-August to late Sept.https://t.co/CyEquC2pn8 pic.twitter.com/AQSdAJsSHp
— NOAA Coral Program (@NOAACoral) June 28, 2023
Water warming faster
Kim Wood, assistant professor in the Department of Geosciences at Mississippi State University, noted Monday that the Gulf of Mexico is not just more bathlike than normal this summer. This year it heated up faster too.
The Gulf of Mexico is not only warmer than normal, it also warmed faster than normal after briefly returning to near-average values in early June.
The line plot shows the *area-averaged* SST within the dashed box shown on the inset map. The map itself shows daily anomalies. pic.twitter.com/ux5JU5d0qI— Dr. Kim Wood (@DrKimWood) July 10, 2023
Hurricane outlook
While there is little evidence to show that climate change is causing a greater number of tropical cyclones to form, there is plenty of research that shows warmer temperatures can result in stronger hurricanes.
Last week, citing "extreme anomalous warmth" in the Atlantic Ocean, forecasters at Colorado State University updated their outlook for this year's hurricane season.
"Their updated hurricane season outlook, released Thursday, now calls for an 'above-average' season with 18 named storms, of which nine will become hurricanes and four will reach major hurricane strength (with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or higher)," the Tampa Bay Times reported. "That's five more named storms — and two more major hurricanes — than first predicted."
Simply put, warmer temperatures add more energy into the climate system. The arrival of the El Niño weather pattern is poised to usher in more record-breaking heat. Last week the world broke the record for the hottest average day ever recorded for three consecutive days. That followed the finding that June was the hottest month ever recorded by humans, and that the planet has recorded its 532nd consecutive month of above-average temperatures.
The hottest June, period. The hottest few days on record. And now an unprecedentedly warm North Atlantic that scientists at the World Meteorological Organisation call "off the charts." Wow, seems like something's up. https://t.co/xG8XA8omZa #climatechange #globalwarming #NetZero pic.twitter.com/62EW9i2R4q
— John Miller (@JPMillerSwitz) July 10, 2023
But El Niño patterns also push the Pacific jet stream south, according to NOAA, and those winds could play a role in preventing the development of hurricanes.