Weather change should send Colorado wildfire smoke away as Poudre River flow hits peak

With record to near-record heat blistering Colorado on Monday, you might have thought the heavy smoke in the air was from a Colorado wildfire.

It's not. Instead, the smoke has been primarily drifting into Colorado from the Pipeline Fire near Flagstaff, Arizona, which ignited Sunday, according to the National Weather Service in Boulder.

The Pipeline Fire, reported at 10:15 a.m. Sunday, is located 6 miles north of Flagstaff and resulted in numerous evacuations, according to the fire tracker website InciWeb. It was estimated at 5,000 acres as of early Monday afternoon.

The weather service said the smoke was mostly elevated and not near the surface — except for in the mountains — but visibility was reduced up and down the Front Range in any direction.

There is good news in the smoke forecast, according to Bruno Rodriguez, meteorologist at the weather service in Boulder.

"It won't stick around too much longer because there is a front coming through tonight,'' he said Monday. "That shift should push the smoke southeast of us and it should be quite a bit clearer for us (Tuesday), assuming there are no new fires.''

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There are no major wildfires in Colorado currently.

Rodriguez said the silver lining of the smoke is it kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecast.

Still, the weather service said Monday's heat wave could break records in several cities, including Fort Collins — the city's record for June 13 is 96 degrees.

Other cities that could break temperature records include Greeley (current record of 102 degrees), Denver (99 degrees), Boulder (98 degrees) and Walden (81 degrees).

State climatologist Russ Schumacher said Fort Collins reached 99 degrees Saturday, a a record for June 11 and the earliest it’s ever been 99 degrees or warmer.

Monday was the fifth straight day of 90 degrees or warmer in the city. The forecast high drops to 81 degrees on Tuesday.

Heat turns up the Poudre River flow

The rapid warmup in recent days after a relatively cool spring has significantly increased the Poudre River flow.

Brad Modesitt, owner of Mountain Whitewater rafting company in Fort Collins, said the river rose 1,000 cubic feet per second Saturday night into Sunday morning, reaching about 2,750 cfs.

He said that prompted the company to postpone Sunday morning commercial rafting trips before resuming in the afternoon when the flow decreased 600 cfs.

"An increase in volume of around 50% overnight is a lot,'' said Modesitt, who admitted he was dumped from his raft Sunday for the first time since 2003. "Sunday was a big water day, and it's fun to be out there now if you are prepared.''

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He said the Poudre River likely peaked over the weekend, right on time historically.

He said while the Poudre River in the canyon is safe to run for those prepared, tubing in the river in Fort Collins is risky given the amount of strainers in the popular stretch from Shields Street to its takeout before College Avenue.

"We recently picked somebody up on the river (in the Poudre Canyon) wearing a T-shirt, jeans and no (personal flotation device), stuck on an island,'' Modesitt said. "That was scary to witness, and those who aren't prepared shouldn't be out there.''

Assistant state climatologist Becky Bolinger said the SNOTEL station at Joe Wright Reservoir about 65 miles west of Fort Collins reflected the recent sudden heat wave.

She said on June 7, the station had 13.6 inches of snow but that since then it has dropped 2 inches per day.

"There has been some incredible quick melting triggered by the warm temperatures in the last week,'' she said. "The Poudre is at peak, and the vast majority of the snow has melted out so you are going to see the Poudre flow pretty well right now.''

Reporter Miles Blumhardt looks for stories that impact your life. Be it news, outdoors, sports — you name it, he wants to report it. Have a story idea? Contact him at milesblumhardt@coloradoan.com or on Twitter @MilesBlumhardt. Support his work and that of other Coloradoan journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today.

This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: Wildfire smoke forecast improves; heat pushes Poudre River to peak