Weather Permitting: What can Fayetteville expect from Hurricane Idalia? Here's what we know.
Whoever's been praying for rain up around Cumnock and down around Antioch — you've got some serious clout with the Almighty.
Last night's rainfall was welcomed across a parched Cape Fear region, but some spots picked up more than 4 inches — with more on the way, courtesy of upcoming Hurricane Idalia.
The storm is expected to hammer the Florida Gulf Coast on Wednesday, sweeping into the Carolinas with a wide swath of wind and rain. The question in Fayetteville is, how much of each will we get?
Gulf coast storms are, by nature, more of a rain than wind event in North Carolina. These storms usually beat themselves to bits overland, with the residual moisture falling as storm structure collapses. Other times, the remnants are dragged along by a frontal boundary, soaking the region as it's pulled out to sea.
That, for now, appears to be the fate of Idalia.
Here's the setup
Last night's showers weren't a harbinger of the hurricane. Rather, as a frontal boundary approached the Cape Fear region, it tapped into the wealth of heat and moisture available, triggering widespread storms.
Fayetteville officially picked up about 3/4-inch of rain, but local totals ranged from about 1/8-inch to better than 2 inches in Massey Hill and Bordeaux.
Chances of showers will continue this afternoon into Tuesday as the front has stalled just to our north and will likely linger. Highs in Fayetteville Monday will hold in the upper 80s, with overnight lows of about 75.
Tuesday looks similar, with sun and clouds trading places and scattered afternoon showers. Highs again in the mid-80s across the region, depending on where and when the rain falls. Rain chances will be higher north and west of Fayetteville but possible just about anywhere.
By Wednesday, Idalia will be entering the picture as the storm moves in on the Florida Gulf Coast. Current expectations are for it to be a major hurricane, coming ashore east of the Big Bend region. From there it should track across Florida and Georgia, likely reaching the Atlantic as a tropical depression or weak tropical storm.
Nearly all modeling steers Idalia south and east of the Cape Fear region, so aside from some gusty conditions to the south, wind should be minimal. There's a possibility of some gradient-driven winds on Thursday, with gusts up to 30 mph.
Rainfall is a more likely issue. A deep plume of tropical moisture will accompany Idalia on its trip north. This will collide with another front approaching the region, most likely on Wednesday.
The result: Widespread rain on Wednesday into Thursday, with a narrow strip of heavy rain (4 inches or so) along the frontal boundary. We won't know where that strip will be for another day or so, but someone is going to get soaked.
Clouds will hold highs in the region to about 80 on Wednesday and the upper 70s on Thursday. A good overall estimate for rain in the region is 2.5-3 inches, higher to the south and east of Fayetteville. And, of course, much higher along the boundary discussed earlier.
The weekend
Everything Idalia-related will be long gone. Friday will be clearing and a bit warmer, with highs in the low 80s. Prep football kickoff conditions will be clear and about 75 degrees with a light northeast wind.
The rest of the weekend should be sunny and warmer, giving the rain a chance to soak in. Highs in the mid- to upper 80s and plenty of sunshine.
Labor Day
Geez, is it September already? It looks near-perfect for outdoor activities as a high-pressure ridge builds over the Carolinas. Expect highs in the low 90s across the region.
Got a weather question? Chick Jacobs can be reached at ncweatherhound@gmail.com or NCWeatherhound on Twitter/X.
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Hurricane Idalia: What can Fayetteville, NC expect?
