Weather Permitting: Here's your Fayetteville area forecast for the week
For the first time since 2014, it looks like hurricane season will actually arrive on time.
In previous years, the first named storm has arrived in mid-May, late April — even January. This year, conditions in the Atlantic and Gulf have been less than cordial for potential systems.
Until this week.
It's looking increasingly like the remnants of Agatha, the first Pacific storm of the season, will slosh over into the Gulf by mid-week. There, the broad collection of showers should encounter enough warm water to slowly reorganize. If so, the reborn storm will be named Alex.
Conditions aren't exactly cordial off the Yucatan for now, so Alex-wannabe would not develop into anything powerful. Look for rain and squalls to approach Florida over the weekend. High pressure should keep anything from approaching the Carolinas — for now.
I say "for now" because long-range modeling gets sort of hinky next week. The storm's future track relies on the interaction of our high-pressure ridge and an upper air system approaching this weekend. Alex's strength after crossing Florida will also be a factor.
In other words, hurricane season may not have arrived early — but it's already making up for lost time.
This week
As June approaches, the Cape Fear region is settling into a sultry summer pattern. Offshore high pressure is feeding a warm flow over the Carolinas, with temperatures climbing into the mid-90s by mid-week. There's always a chance of a stray shower, especially along the Sea Breeze Line, but for the most part things will remain dry.
Highs in Fayetteville should hit 93 Tuesday, 95 Wednesday, then perhaps 97 Thursday. With dew points holding in the low 60s, it won't feel especially muggy, but remember that heat has a cumulative effect. Take it easy outdoors, especially later in the week.
The weekend
Late in the week, look for a cold front (generally cold in name only) to push our high pressure further offshore. This opens the door for Alex-wannabe to move toward the Southeast coast, probably into central or southern Florida. Advance moisture will lead to clouds and an increased chance of scattered showers Friday afternoon and evening.
Saturday and Sunday should be generally sunny, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s. And, by then, we'll have a much better idea of whether or not Alex is anything to worry about.
Have a great week!
Got a weather question? Chick Jacobs can be reached at ncweatherhound@gmail.com or NCWeatherhound on Twitter.
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Weather in Fayetteville, NC this week
