Weather Permitting: Here's the latest on how Hurricane Ian could affect Fayetteville area
Hurricane Ian grew into a dangerous major hurricane with the potential for wind and heavy rain far beyond its next target of Florida.
After roaring across western Cuba this morning, Ian is aiming at the west coast of Florida late Wednesday. Winds topping 125 mph and up to three feet of rain are possible. The National Hurricane Center expects Ian to slam into the Gulf Coast just south of Tampa, near Sarasota, at about sunset as a Category 4 hurricane.
For comparison in the Carolinas, the last Category 4 storm at landfall was Hugo. Fran, which slammed into Wilmington and roared through Fayetteville in 1996, came ashore as a Category 3. Our last damaging hurricane in the Cape Fear region was Category 1 Florence in 2018.
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Rain could start Thursday
Ian's effect will likely be felt in the Carolinas long before the storm lifts out of Florida. A sprawling rain shield fed by deep tropical moisture will likely arrive in South Carolina on Thursday, moving into the Cape Fear region by Friday morning.
"Right now it appears that Friday afternoon through Saturday evening will be the period with the highest chances for rain," said NWS Raleigh forecaster Tom Green in a discussion of the weekend forecast. "However, the window for rain will extend from Thursday night across the south all the way through Monday."
Winds will likely pick up across the Carolinas on Thursday, while the center of Ian is still sliding across the Florida peninsula. A steady north-to-northeast breeze will become gusty late Thursday into Friday, likely becoming blustery Friday morning. Rain should hold off in Fayetteville until early Friday, with chances and totals increasing through the day. With clouds and a strong northeast wind, look for high temperatures to hold below 70 degrees.
Total rainfall projections for the Cape Fear region are running from 4 to 6 inches, with heavier totals coming in the southern region. There's a chance totals could run higher as well, as a high-pressure system to our north squeezes out additional tropical moisture from cooling clouds on Saturday.
It may also be noted that an increasing number of models, including the bellwether Euro, have moved the track of Ian into the Atlantic after crossing Florida. If so, a potential second landfall by the weakened storm is possible in the Carolinas. This would raise erosion and flooding concerns, and tropical storm warnings may need to be posted.
Conditions Sunday depend entirely on how quickly what's left of Ian moves out of the Carolinas. For updated information, click on the National Hurricane Center's information page or follow NCWeatherhound on Twitter.
Got a weather question? Chick Jacobs can be reached at ncweatherhound@gmail.com or NCWeatherhound on Twitter.
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Hurricane Ian forecast: What Fayetteville, NC can expect
