Weather Permitting: The latest on Hurricane Ian's expected impact on the Fayetteville area
As Hurricane Ian delivers a catastrophic combination of wind and surf to Florida's west coast, modeling shows an increased risk of a later landfall in the Carolinas.
The storm will drift across Florida through Thursday, and the official National Hurricane Center track then eases the storm into the Atlantic Ocean. From there, modeling projections range from a quick return inland to a more extended stay in the Atlantic.
The difference could spell major differences for the Cape Fear region Friday night into Saturday. Forecasts for the region already anticipated heavy rains and squally winds, but a more northerly landfall by Ian should exacerbate those conditions.
"The track of Hurricane Ian has continued to shift to the east into Friday before shifting back to the west on Saturday," noted National Weather Center forecaster Paul Green in Wednesday's storm discussion. "We continue to stress that people should not focus on the exact track of the storm as the impacts will be felt for hundreds of miles away from the center of the storm."
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The storm's strength has allowed it to tap into upper-level steering currents. These currents have nudged Ian further east than forecasters expected, creating an opportunity for the hurricane to strike the South Carolina coast late Friday.
The current change in the forecasted track shouldn't make much of a difference for Fayetteville. We were already expecting heavy rain and gusty winds. However, to the south and west, winds may be increasing earlier. In addition, as the storm approaches, there could be an increased risk of quick spin-up tornadoes south and east of I-95.
Expectations are for a general heavy rain advisory to be posted for the region from Friday morning through Saturday. At the time it does not appear that winds will reach a warning criteria level.
Current NHC projections are for Ian to still be a hurricane, though considerably weaker, when it makes landfall on the South Carolina coast between Savannah and Beaufort. The NHC track lifts the storm through the state, into the Foothills west of Charlotte.
That's the track generally suggested by both the Euro and GFS models. However, other models have pegged a landfall by a stronger Ian closer to Charleston.
In either case, look for clouds to begin building over the Cape Fear region by late Thursday afternoon, with scattered showers arriving overnight. By Friday morning, rain will increase from southeast to northwest during the day, with the heaviest rainfall between Friday night and late Saturday. Wind gusts should reach 40-45 mph in Fayetteville by sunset Friday, continuing through the night. Gusts should be higher in the southern region and to the west.
Saturday looks rainy and windy, with a high of about 68 in Fayetteville. Clouds will linger into Sunday, with lingering showers but less wind. Highs may reach 75.
For the latest official word on Hurricane Ian, check the NHC home page at NHC.noaa.gov or follow NCWeatherhound on Twitter.
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Hurricane Ian: Fayetteville, NC update for Wednesday
